Q1 2026 U.S. Retail Scorecard - Wednesday, June 3

To date, 175 of the 188 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2026, representing 93% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 74% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 3% delivered on-target results and 23% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 26.8%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 188 companies in this index is 7.5% for Q1 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 71% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 29% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

This week in retail

Macy’s (M) delivered a stronger-than-expected start to fiscal 2026, reporting Q1 revenue of $4.68 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.13. Same-store sales (SSS) increased 3.0%, marking the company’s strongest first-quarter performance in four years and reflecting broad-based strength across its portfolio. Bloomingdale’s led the way with an impressive 10.2% SSS increase, while Bluemercury posted 6.4% growth, highlighting continued resilience among higher-income consumers. Macy’s namesake banner also returned to growth, generating a 1.6% comparable sales increase. Following the better-than-expected quarter, management raised its full-year outlook, signaling confidence in the sustainability of recent momentum.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) also delivered a solid quarter, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.91, ahead of consensus expectations. While total net sales of $658.9 million fell slightly short of analyst estimates, comparable sales increased 1.7%, primarily driven by larger basket sizes as consumers continued to seek value. The company’s ability to drive higher spend per transaction reinforces the strength of its off-price model in the current environment. Reflecting this confidence, Ollie’s raised its full-year earnings outlook for fiscal 2026.

Attention now shifts to Lululemon (LULU) and Five Below (FIVE), both scheduled to report earnings this week. Analysts polled by LSEG expect Lululemon to post Q1 EPS of $1.68 on revenue of $2.43 billion, with SSS projected to decline 0.7%. The anticipated slowdown reflects softer North American demand amid heightened competition and a more promotional retail landscape. Key areas of focus will include whether resilient consumer spending helped stabilize domestic trends, the extent to which the company maintained full-price selling, and whether continued strength in China is sufficient to offset weakness in the U.S. market.

Within retail, investors remain increasingly constructive on value-oriented operators as consumers continue to prioritize affordability. Five Below is among the most closely watched earnings releases this week. LSEG consensus estimates call for Q1 comparable sales growth of 16.6% and EPS of $1.76. Notably, LSEG StarMine’s Predicted Surprise model is signaling upside potential of more than 2%, suggesting an elevated probability that Five Below could exceed earnings expectations and deliver another positive comparable sales surprise.

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 2).

Other retailers with Predicted Surprise scores above 2.0% include: