Preliminary Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 9 And 16

Here are my preliminary forecasts for upcoming economic data for the weeks of August 9 and August 16, 2021. Look for the complete version this weekend.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.      
  Forecast Prior Observation  
Week of August 9      
August 9      
JOLTS - June 9.000M 9.209  
       
August 10      
NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - July 104.0 102.5  
       
Productivity - Q2 (p) 3.4% 5.4  
Unit Labor Costs 0.9 1.7  
       
August 11      
Consumer Price Index - July 0.5% 0.9  
CPI Core 0.5 0.9  
       
Treasury Budget - July -$255.0B -174.2  
       
August 12      
Producer Price Index - July 0.4% 1.0  
PPI less food energy and trade services 0.4 0.5  
       
August 13      
Export Prices -  July 0.7% 1.2  
Import Prices 0.6 1.0  
       
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p) 81.2 81.2  
       
Week of August 16      
August 16      
New York Fed Manufacturing Index 35.0 43.0  
       
August 17      
Retail Sales - July 0.3% 0.6  
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.0 1.3  
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas 0.0 1.1  
       
Industrial Production - July  0.5% 0.4  
Manufacturing 0.3 -0.1  
Capacity Utilization 75.7 75.4  
       
Business Inventories - June 0.7% 0.6  
NAHB Index 80 80  
       
August 18      
Housing Starts - July 1.660 1.643  
Building Permits 1.680 1.598  
       
August 19      
Philadelphia Fed Survey 26.3 21.9  
Leading Economic Indicators 0.7% 0.7

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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