Preliminary Economic Data Forecasts

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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation
Week of October 4
October 4
Factory Orders - August	1.2%	0.4
Durable Goods Orders	1.8	-0.1
Nondurable Goods Orders	0.5	0.9

October 5
International Trade - August	-70.5B	70.1

PMI Services Index	54.4	54.4
ISM Services - September	61.3	61.7

October 6
ADP Employment Report - September	475K	374

October 7
Consumer Credit - August	$25.0B	17.0

October 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - September	525K	235
Private	600	243
Manufacturing	30	37
Unemployment	5.0%	5.2
Average Workweek	34.7HR	34.7
Average Hourly Earnings	0.3%	0.6

Wholesale Inventories - August	1.2%	1.2

Week of October 11

October 12
JOLTS - August	11.2M	10.9

October 13
Consumer Price Index - September	0.3%	0.3
Core CPI	0.2	0.1
Energy

October 14
Producer Price Index - September	0.4%	0.7
PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)	0.4	0.3

October 15
Retail Sales - September	-0.2%	0.7
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.3	1.8
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas	0.2	2.0

New York Fed Manufacturing Index	25.0	34.3

Export Prices - September	0.5%	0.4
Import Prices	0.6	-0.3
Import Prices, ex-Energy	0.3	-0.1

Business Inventories - August	1.0%	0.5
Treasury Budget - September	-$140.2B	-170.6