Pre Market Briefing For Monday, April 20

By Eli Levy of Cannon Trading

The Macro Driver

Bulls have taken hold. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied to fresh all-time highs Friday on growing hopes that the U.S.–Iran war ends this week, with Trump announcing planned peace talks and negotiators set to travel to Pakistan Monday. Equity futures opened the week at 7,161.50 (+1.19%) on ES and 26,825.50 (+1.39%) on NQ — a fresh record close of 7,150 flagged by Newsquawk. Crude Light has now reversed −7.37%, pricing out the war-risk premium as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire.

△ The Binary Question

Does the Iran peace framework hold, or does the US boarding of Iran-linked ships collapse the narrative inside 48 hours? Bloomberg’s live blog (April 18) flagged the Wall Street Journal report that the US is preparing to board Iran-linked vessels — a pressure tactic with headline-reversal risk. Tehran has already signaled a possible boycott of talks. Every desk is pricing peace; the asymmetric trade is in the hedges.

■ Consensus Trade Posture

Long equities at record highs, short oil into the ceasefire, short volatility, rotating from energy into tech. But the ZeroHedge “vicious Treasury market emergency” flag (April 18) and the 30-year Treasury’s long-term down trend mean the bond market has not signed the peace treaty. The New York Fed’s April 18 NYC Economic Indicators update flagged that Second District activity continued to decline modestly amid tariff and Iran-war uncertainty — real-economy drag under the record-close tape. Steel Dynamics tonight is the first read on industrial-metal demand in the post-blockade tape.

The record close, the Treasury emergency, and the ship the U.S. is about to board — three incompatible stories open the same Monday tape

Futures are priced for peace. The Cannon terminal shows E-Mini S&P at 7,161.50 (+1.19%), E-Mini Nasdaq at 26,825.50 (+1.39%), both with short-term and long-term trend arrows pointing up. Newsquawk’s Monday Morning Briefing framed the week with a single word: bulls. S&P 500 futures printed a fresh all-time-high close of 7,150 per Newsquawk — cross-confirmed by the WSJ Markets A.M. edition on April 18 that walked readers through why the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished at fresh records. The Seeking Alpha Wall Street Breakfast earnings spotlight is Steel Dynamics (STLD), which reports after the close and will give the Street its first clean read on industrial demand in a world where the Strait of Hormuz is — at least on paper — open again.

Crude told the opposite story last week. Crude Light printed 82.59, down 7.37% on the day per Cannon’s Market Overview. The short-term trend is now DOWN; the long-term trend remains UP. The IEA’s April Oil Market Report, flagged by Newsquawk, cut its 2026 global oil supply-growth forecast by nearly half, framing the Middle East conflict as the largest oil supply disruption ever — and Saudi officials were still pencilling in a base case that put Brent at $180/bbl if the disruption persisted through late April. That is the bull case buried under Friday’s −7.37%.

Then the headline the bulls did not see. Bloomberg Markets Live posted a live-blog entry on April 18 with a Wall Street Journal scoop: the United States is preparing to board Iran-linked ships as part of the ongoing maritime pressure campaign. Tehran responded by signalling a possible boycott of the peace talks announced over the weekend. The ceasefire trade and the interdiction headline cannot both be true for long. ZeroHedge’s Saturday post — “Is A ‘Vicious’ Treasury Market Emergency Here?” — said the bond market is not buying the peace story. The 30-year Treasury sits at 114.59 (+0.82%), but the long-term trend arrow on Cannon’s terminal is DOWN.

The Fed read sits on top of a softer real-economy print. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its NYC Economic Indicators update on April 18, noting that Second District activity continued to decline modestly amid heightened tariff and Iran-war uncertainty — regional housing is resilient, but the broader metro trend is fading under the record-close tape. Nick Timiraos added the labor dimension inside the window: a new Fed board staff paper concludes that breakeven payroll growth is near zero, meaning monthly prints of −100K jobs are now consistent with equilibrium output. Every rate-cut bull is trading against a framework where negative NFP is not a recession signal.

Overnight Key Numbers — Monday Pre-Market

Markets at the Open ▲ Equities All-Time Highs ▼ Crude Collapse ↔ Treasury Emergency Flag

S&P 500 Futures (ES) ▲

7,161.50 / +1.19%

Fresh all-time-high territory. Cannon June ES pivot 7,140.83 — trading above. R1 7,206.42, R2 7,251.33, R3 7,316.92. S1 7,095.92. Newsquawk flagged new record close of 7,150. Short-term trend UP / long-term trend UP

Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) ▲

26,825.50 / +1.39%

Cannon June NQ pivot 26,717.42 — trading above. R1 26,994.83, R2 27,162.17, R3 27,439.58. S1 26,550.08. Tech leadership intact on peace-talk optimism. Short-term trend UP / long-term trend UP

Dow Futures (YM) ▲

Above Pivot 49,458

Cannon June YM pivot 49,458. R1 50,108, R2 50,574, R3 51,224. S1 48,992, S2 48,342, S3 47,876. Broad participation with the S&P/Nasdaq record bid

WTI Crude (CL) ▼ Collapse

82.59 / −7.37%

Cannon June CL pivot 84.13, trading below. S1 77.92, S2 72.76, S3 66.55. R1 89.29, R2 95.50, R3 100.66. Strait of Hormuz reopened during ceasefire per Newsquawk. Short-term trend DOWN / long-term trend UP

Natural Gas (NG) ↔ Flat

2.67 / +0.19%

Cannon May NG pivot 2.67 — printing pivot. R1 2.72, R2 2.75, R3 2.80. S1 2.63. Both short- and long-term trend arrows DOWN on Cannon Market Overview

Gold (GC) ▲

4,879.90 / +1.33%

Cannon June GC pivot 4,859.80 — above pivot. R1 4,933.70, R2 4,991.60, R3 5,065.50. S1 4,801.90. Short-term trend UP / long-term trend UP. Gold bid despite the equity rally — the Treasury-stress tell

Silver (SI) ▲

81.84 / +3.77%

Cannon May SI pivot 80.84 — well above. R1 83.91, R2 86.32, R3 89.39. S1 78.44. Silver is the day’s biggest percentage gainer on the Cannon board — classic dual industrial/monetary bid. Short-term UP / long-term UP

Copper ▲

6.11 / +0.82%

Industrial-demand read alongside Steel Dynamics tonight. Cannon Market Overview 52-week range 4.5585 to 6.583 — near cycle highs

30-Year Treasury ▲ Price

114.59 / +0.82%

Cannon June ZB pivot 114 11/32. Long-term trend arrow DOWN on Cannon Market Overview — the “Treasury emergency” flag ZeroHedge highlighted April 18

10-Year Note (ZN) ↔

Pivot 111 18/32

Cannon June ZN pivot 111 18/32. R1 112, R2 112 10/32, R3 112 24/32. S1 111 9/32. Belly of the curve in wait-mode ahead of Fed data flow this week

Euro FX (6E) ▼

1.18 / −0.12%

Cannon June Euro pivot 1.1827. Trading just below pivot. Short-term UP / long-term UP per Cannon Market Overview — pullback inside the uptrend

Bitcoin (BRTI/BTC) ▲

77,600 / +2.86%

Cannon BTC pivot 76,813. R1 79,062, R2 80,598, R3 82,847. S1 75,277. BTC trading risk-on with equities. Short-term UP / long-term UP

Soybeans (ZS) ↔ Mixed

1,167.25 / +0.28%

Cannon May ZS pivot 1,156.3. Short-term trend DOWN despite tiny positive day; long-term trend still UP

Cocoa (CC) ▼ Rout

3,280.00 / −5.82%

Cannon July CC pivot 3,369. Trading below pivot with a 5.82% session loss — second-biggest percentage decliner on the Cannon board behind crude

Coffee (KC) ▼

284.25 / −2.44%

Cannon July KC pivot 286.72. Short-term trend DOWN. Soft-commodity weakness alongside sugar and cocoa

Today’s Event Schedule & Week Ahead — April 20–24, 2026

MON APR 20Steel Dynamics (STLD) Earnings — After Close — Flagged by Seeking Alpha Wall Street Breakfast as Monday’s earnings spotlight. First clean read on industrial-metals demand post-blockade. 🔴 High Impact

MON APR 20TopBuild / QXO $17B Acquisition — Pre-Market — TopBuild +20% pre-market per Benzinga. Other pre-market gainers flagged: PBM +109%, TOVX +62%, CMND +65%. 🟡 Flow

THIS WEEKIran Peace Talks — Pakistan — Trump announced planned peace talks (Newsquawk). US negotiators travel to Pakistan Monday. Tehran has signalled a possible boycott. Binary headline catalyst for crude, gold, VIX, and the Treasury curve. 🔴🔴 Override

THIS WEEKUSTR Section 301 Probe — 16 Trading Partners — Newsquawk flagged the initiation of the probe covering China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India, Japan. Trade-policy overhang returns to the tape. 🟡 Watch

TUE APR 21Earnings — Capital One, Interactive Brokers, United Airlines • ADP Weekly Employment Change • Retail Sales (March) • Business Inventories • Pending Home Sales 🟡 Heavy

WED APR 22Earnings — Tesla, Boeing, AT&T — Mega-cap industrial + tech reads on the post-ceasefire demand picture. 🔴 Critical

ONGOINGIEA Oil Market Report Outlook — IEA OMR cut 2026 global oil supply-growth forecast by nearly half, framing the Middle East conflict as the largest oil supply disruption ever. Saudi base case has Brent at $180/bbl if disruptions persist through late April. 🔴 Crude Framework

Federal Reserve Bank of New York — NYC Economic IndicatorsApril 18 Update — Second District Activity Continues to Decline Modestly

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research & Statistics Group released New York City Economic Indicators on April 18 — the sole Fed-system data drop inside the 48-hour window. Key takeaways: over the past year the New York metro area and U.S. economies have been resilient to uncertainty from multiple sources, including trade and other government policies; consumer spending has been solid and business investment strong; the regional housing market has stood in contrast to a sluggish national one. However, economic activity in the Second District continued to decline modestly amid heightened uncertainty in large part due to shifts in tariff policy and the conflict in the Middle East. Nick Timiraos’s weekend flag on the new Fed board staff paper — breakeven payroll growth near zero, meaning monthly prints of −100K jobs are now consistent with equilibrium output — compounds the framework: a soft headline NFP is no longer an automatic recession signal.

Technical Reference — Cannon Trading Company

Daily Levels for April 20, 2026

Support, resistance, and pivot levels across all major futures contracts. S&P pivot 7,140.83 • Nasdaq pivot 26,717.42 • Crude pivot 84.13 • Gold pivot 4,859.80 • Bitcoin pivot 76,813 • Euro pivot 1.1827.

Table 1 — Cannon Daily Levels — Equity, Energy, Bonds, Metals, Grains & Softs Futures (June/May/July 2026)

Cannon Trading Company Daily Levels — Table 1 — April 20, 2026 — cannontrading.com — (310) 859-9572

Table 2 — Market Overview: Current Close, % Change, Short-Term & Long-Term Trend Signals

Cannon Trading Company Daily Levels — Table 2 — Market Overview — April 20, 2026 — cannontrading.com

Morning Newsletters & Daily Briefings — Monday April 20

Bloomberg Markets LiveLive Blog — “US Prepares to Board Iran-Linked Ships, WSJ Says”

The Bloomberg Markets Live blog posted on April 18 relayed a Wall Street Journal report that the United States is preparing to board Iran-linked ships as part of its ongoing maritime pressure campaign. The post sat alongside other Bloomberg weekend coverage noting that oil markets will not recover quickly from the Iran war — the conflict has sent shockwaves through global energy markets and raised concerns about long-term supply disruptions. The market is pricing peace at the exact moment the U.S. is pricing interdiction. That gap is the single most asymmetric trade setup in today’s tape — crude at 82.59 with a long-term UP trend arrow on Cannon’s board means the chart is not confirming the day’s −7.37% print.

WSJ Markets A.M.S&P 500 and Nasdaq Close at Fresh Records • Luxury Stalls • AI Pivot Under the Microscope

The April 18 WSJ Markets A.M. edition walked readers through why the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished the week at fresh records, whether luxury fashion stocks are no longer in vogue, and whether pivoting to AI is a good corporate strategy. Host Imani Moise reviewed the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. The record-high framing cross-confirms the Cannon ES print at 7,161.50 and the Newsquawk flag of the new all-time-high close at 7,150.

ZeroHedge Morning Market Intelligence“Is A ‘Vicious’ Treasury Market Emergency Here?” — April 18

The April 18 ZeroHedge post posed the week’s single most important question for rate-sensitive desks: is a vicious Treasury market emergency here? The post sits beneath Cannon’s 30-year Treasury print of 114.59 (+0.82%) and the long-term DOWN trend arrow on the Cannon Market Overview — two signals that cannot both be right for long. The ZeroHedge framing is the counterweight to every risk-on headline crossing Monday’s tape. It is also the bond-market explanation for why gold at $4,879.90 and silver at $81.84 are both bid alongside the equity record: safe-haven rotation inside a broader risk rally is doing exactly what it did pre-war.

Seeking Alpha Wall Street BreakfastMonday Earnings Spotlight: Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Seeking Alpha Wall Street Breakfast flagged Monday’s earnings spotlight as Steel Dynamics (STLD). Steel earnings in a post-blockade tape are the first clean industrial-demand read. Every desk modeling the Saudi $180/bbl Brent scenario versus the peace-deal $92/bbl scenario needs an answer on whether US industrial demand is absorbing the oil whipsaw or freezing under it. STLD prints after the close.

Benzinga Pre-Market RecapTopBuild +20% on $17B QXO Acquisition • PBM, TOVX, CMND Lead Pre-Market Gainers

The Benzinga Pre-Market Recap for April 20 led with TopBuild up 20.2% to $493.01 on news that QXO agreed to acquire TopBuild for $17 billion. The broader pre-market board was unusually active: Psyence Biomedical (PBM) gained 109.4% to $15.92; Theriva Biologics (TOVX) gained 62.3% to $0.42 after announcing an upcoming poster presentation of new VIRAGE Phase 2b data; Clearmind Medicine (CMND) jumped 65.4% to $1.19; LZ Technology (LZMH) rose 43.3%; Cango ADR (CANG) rose 38.1%. On the downside, SBC Medical Group (SBC) fell 35.4% on pricing of a secondary public offering. The TopBuild M&A headline is the first strategic action inside the building-products complex since the ceasefire news.

Newsquawk Morning BriefingTrump Announces Iran Peace Talks • Tehran Signals Boycott • IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Supply Forecast • USTR Section 301 Probe

The Newsquawk Morning Briefing for April 20 packed the day’s macro headlines onto one page. Trump announced planned Iran war peace talks; Tehran immediately signalled it may boycott negotiations amid ongoing U.S. naval pressure; businesses can now apply for Trump tariff refunds. The IEA’s April Oil Market Report cut its 2026 global oil supply-growth forecast by nearly half, framing the Middle East conflict as the largest oil supply disruption ever. Saudi officials see the base case for oil at USD 180/bbl if the disruptions persist until late April. On trade policy, USTR Greer said the US is initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan. Market performance: S&P 500 futures reached a new all-time high close of 7,150 — aligning with the Cannon ES print of 7,161.50.

Additional Macro & Federal Reserve — Last 48 Hours

Federal Reserve Bank of New York — NYC Economic IndicatorsApril 18 Update — Second District Activity Continues to Decline Modestly

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research & Statistics Group released New York City Economic Indicators on April 18. Key findings: over the past year the New York metro area and U.S. economies have been resilient to uncertainty from multiple sources, including trade and other government policies; consumer spending has been solid and business investment strong; the regional housing market has stood in contrast to a sluggish national one. However, economic activity in the Second District continued to decline modestly amid heightened uncertainty in large part due to shifts in tariff policy and the conflict in the Middle East. Real activity at the regional level is softer than the record-close equity tape implies.

Wildcards & Contrarian Flags

What the Consensus Is Missing — Monday, April 20 Edition

The Peace Trade and the Interdiction Headline Cannot Coexist Forever

Bloomberg Markets Live flagged the WSJ report on April 18 that the U.S. is preparing to board Iran-linked ships as part of the maritime pressure campaign. Newsquawk’s Monday Morning Briefing confirmed Tehran signalled a possible boycott of the peace talks Trump announced. The S&P is at record highs. One of these stories will move; the other will break. Equity books that are long into a Pakistan talks-begin-Monday headline without a maritime-escalation hedge are running a one-sided book.

ZeroHedge’s Treasury Emergency Flag vs. Cannon’s 30-Year Price

Cannon’s Market Overview shows 30-year Treasury at 114.59 up 0.82% on the day — price up, yields down. But the long-term trend arrow is DOWN. ZeroHedge’s April 18 post framed a vicious Treasury market emergency. The daily print and the structural tape disagree. Gold at $4,879.90 (+1.33%) and silver at $81.84 (+3.77%) are doing the confirming work — safe-haven metals bid on a record-high equity day is the signature of late-cycle rotation, not capitulation.

Breakeven Payroll Growth Near Zero Rewrites Every NFP Print

Nick Timiraos flagged the new Fed board paper showing breakeven job growth is near zero, with monthly declines as large as −100K jobs now consistent with equilibrium output. Every labor-market surprise going forward has to be filtered through this math. A negative print is not a recession signal under the paper’s framework — which means every hedge that assumed NFP weakness forces cuts just got downgraded.

NY Fed Second-District Drag vs. Record-Close S&P Tape

The NY Fed’s April 18 NYC Economic Indicators update said Second District activity continued to decline modestly amid tariff and Iran-war uncertainty — even as consumer spending and business investment nationally stayed solid. That split between resilient headline data and a softening regional core is the exact condition under which a fresh equity record sets up a single-catalyst reversal. If Steel Dynamics tonight confirms softening industrial demand, the NY Fed reading stops being a footnote.

Pod-Shop Comp Spiral Signals Where Risk Is Repositioning

Nishant Kumar’s April 19 Bloomberg piece — Tarun Tyagi quit Millennium before even starting, amid a frenzied hedge-fund job market sending pay spiraling higher — is the Monday-morning tell on multi-manager dry powder. Seat-musical-chairs tape is the earliest indicator of risk reallocation at exactly the moment the public tape is printing new highs.

The Bottom Line — Three Things Every Desk Agrees On

Three Things Every Desk Agrees On — Monday April 20

The Macro Driver

The Iran peace-talks headline is driving every asset class: S&P 500 futures at 7,161.50 (+1.19%) and Nasdaq at 26,825.50 (+1.39%) both printed fresh all-time highs; Crude Light dropped 7.37% to 82.59 on the Strait-of-Hormuz reopening; USTR simultaneously opened a Section 301 probe on 16 partners. The entire Monday tape is a single headline risk.

The Binary Question

Will Tehran show up to the Pakistan talks this week, or will the WSJ-flagged Iran-ship boarding collapse the ceasefire narrative? Bloomberg Markets Live (April 18) and Newsquawk’s Monday briefing carried the contradictory signals in the last 48 hours. The answer lives inside 48 hours.

Consensus Trade Posture

Long equities at records, short crude into the ceasefire, long gold and silver as insurance, watching Steel Dynamics tonight for the first industrial-demand confirmation, and hedged against the ZeroHedge Treasury-emergency flag through the 30-year Treasury’s broken long-term chart. The NY Fed’s April 18 NYC Economic Indicators snapshot — Second District activity still declining modestly — and Nick Timiraos’s breakeven-payroll reframing mean the Fed data path no longer auto-signals cuts on a soft NFP. One of those paths wins this week.