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Plug Power (PLUG) reported Q3 2026 results on November 9: revenue of $200.6M, up 13.3% from a year earlier, 3.8% above the $193.3M consensus of 13 analysts and $3.9M above our $196.7M forecast. More than half of the consensus range sat below the $194.8M floor Plug had already given on October 15, when it said revenue grew more than 10%.
Equipment carried the quarter. Equipment and infrastructure revenue rose to $105.7M from $81.9M in Q2, on 1,136 GenDrive units deployed, against 540 a year earlier. Services ($29.0M) and fuel ($38.1M) both came in below our numbers, and fuel fell from Q2.
The profit is not operating profit. Plug reported GAAP net income of $99.8M, or $0.07 a basic share. The notes added $108.3M and the warrants $84.2M of mark-to-market gains after the stock fell 28% in Q3. Without them, the result was a loss of about $0.05 a share. Those instruments are marked every quarter, so a rising share price in Q4 turns the gain into a charge.
The margin needs a second look. Gross margin was -2.7%, against -0.9% in Q2, and it included a $10.4M release of loss-contract provisions, twice the $5.0M we assumed. Without the releases, it was -7.9%, an improvement on Q2's -9.7%.
Q4 is now the test. Plug kept its 15% to 16% growth guide for 2026. On 2025 revenue of $710.0M, with $542.4M booked through September, Q4 needs $274.1M to $281.2M: 38% more than Q3. The Q4 target of positive EBITDAS is harder. Against operating costs of roughly $75M a quarter, $277.6M of revenue needs a gross margin near 27% before add-backs, against -2.7% in Q3.
The product-line table, the margin bridge, and the Q4 math are here: Plug Power (PLUG) Q3 2026 Earnings: Our Forecast vs. the Results.
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