Planet Labs (PL) reports its fiscal third quarter, August to October, in early to mid December; the date is not announced yet, and last year it reported on December 10. It guided Q3 revenue to $101M to $105M, below the $116.1M it reported for Q2.
The step down is mostly accounting. Planet's 10-Q now splits revenue by how it is recognized. Q2 included $14.1M of point-in-time revenue, most of it from handing over the first Pelican satellite built for Sweden, which management had expected in Q3. Revenue recognized over time, the data subscriptions and services delivered through the quarter, was $102.0M. The Q3 guide midpoint is only $1.0M above that.
That part has not stalled. Over-time revenue was $92.3M in Q1 and $102.0M in Q2, up 42.4% and 40.5% from a year earlier. The guide midpoint is 26.8% above last year's Q3, so it implies growth falling from about 40% to under 30% in one quarter.
The backlog points the other way. Planet ended Q2 with about $814.9M of backlog, about 50% of it due within twelve months, up from 37% at the end of January. That is roughly $102M a quarter from contracts already signed, before usage, renewals and new wins.
Our build. Over-time revenue grows $5.0M, about half of last quarter's gain, plus $1.5M of point-in-time revenue, for $108.5M: 3.9% above the $104.4M consensus from 9 analysts and above the top of the guide. Non-GAAP EPS comes to about -$0.02 against -$0.025. Our range runs from $103M, if over-time revenue stalls as the guide assumes, to $115M with another satellite acceptance.
The caveat is real. Without the handover, Q2's over-time revenue landed at the bottom of its own $102M to $107M guide, so last quarter's beat came from timing. Planet has met or beaten its guide in each of the last eight settled comparisons, but we do not lean on that record alone.
Q4 needs satellites. The full-year guide of $430M to $441M leaves $116.8M to $127.8M for Q4 if Q3 lands at the guide midpoint. Our over-time trend reaches about $112M, so the top half needs more satellite acceptances. We forecast $122.0M against a $123.6M consensus, and $440.7M for the year.
What to watch: over-time revenue growth, the share of backlog due within twelve months, new satellite services contracts after Sweden and Germany, and the Q4 guide.
The full preview, with the revenue split by recognition model, the Q2-to-Q3 bridge and the scenario range, is here: Planet Labs (PL) Q3 FY27 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
Source: Equibles. Consensus as of November 3.
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