One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release

NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%.

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/12 (gray circle), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed , Cleveland Fed, and Coibion and Gorodnichenko. 

In general, both NY Fed and Michigan surveys are upwardly biased (see here).