One Year CPI Inflation Expectations as of Mid-July

NY Fed consumer expectations up in June, Michigan down in July. WSJ July survey mean says y/y inflation will be 3.9% in June 2023.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected (preliminary) from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Michigan July observation is preliminary. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko. 

While the NY Fed one-year inflation expectations ticked up in July, from 6.6% to 6.8%, the median three-year expectations fell from 4.76% to 4.60% (and is down from 4.88% in March).

---

More By This Author:

Inflation In June
A Depressed Growth Trajectory: The Wall Street Journal July Survey
China Q2 Takes an (Expected) Dive