One Of The Nastiest Contractions In Liquidity In Recent Times

High Treasury market leverage and weakening U.S. reserve status signal mounting systemic risks for macro-oriented investors.

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Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week.

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From Barron’s: “The profit-versus-labor gap is quickly becoming the most legible grievance in politics… A portfolio positioned as if record margins are permanent and untaxed ignores both mean reversion and legislative risk.”

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Whitney Baker writes, “We’re in the early innings of one of the nastiest contractions in liquidity in recent times – the sort that topples financial pyramids and the assets and economies tethered to them.”

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Robin Wigglesworth explains how the treasury market has become heavily reliant upon highly-leveraged hedge funds in recent years. As Andrew Bailey recently asked, “The question we have to face is, is that a robust structure from the point of view of financial stability?”

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Reuters quotes economist Phil Suttle: “The US is now in a phase where its global seignorage benefits of supplying the world’s reserve currency have now been exhausted; the next phase (which may already be underway) is what happens when the foreign official holders of your liabilities become more antsy about holding them.”

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Finally, Goehring & Rozencwajg note that, “Oil has been in an eighteen-year bear market since the $145 high of 2008. In grueling bear markets, a narrative takes hold that reinforces the price action — the lower prices go, the truer the story feels.”

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