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The RBNZ meets again this week and expectations are firmly set for no rate change with the OCR expected to stay at 5.50%. However, market participants will be watching the forward guidance very carefully. If the RBNZ departs from its prior communication of rates being 'restrictive for the foreseeable future' then the NZDUSD could fall sharply out of the decision in line with its seasonal period of weakness. However, the FOMC minutes are also due out on Wednesday so there is a key USD risk to this outlook on the same day to be aware of.
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