New Short-Term Downtrend

The Short-Term Trend

We probably have a new short-term downtrend, although it is still unconfirmed. Not all of the critical indicators have started to point lower.

The SPX is under its five-day average, but just barely.

The Summation Index has rolled over and is now pointing lower, although it still looks a bit tentative.

I mentioned that not all of the indicators are pointing lower. Here is an example: the ten-day Call/Put is still pointing higher, although it has been moving sideways for a couple of weeks.

Outlook Summary

• The economy is in recession as of March 28.
• The short-term trend is lower as of May 15.  
•  Contrarian Sentiment favors lower prices as of May 2.
• The medium-term trend for Treasury bonds is up as of January 25 (prices higher, yields lower).