Nebius (NBIS) reports Q3 2026 results on Thursday, November 12, before the open. The stock sold off with every company that rents out GPUs after CoreWeave (CRWV)'s debt scare, but Nebius's own numbers point to a beat.
ARR is a monthly revenue figure. Since 2026 Nebius defines ARR as AI cloud revenue in the last month of the quarter multiplied by 12. June ARR of $3.0B therefore means about $250M of AI cloud revenue in June, against a Q2 monthly average of about $192M ($574.9M for the quarter). If revenue simply stayed at the June level, Q3 would bring in $750M before the Microsoft (MSFT) tranches delivered between mid-July and mid-August and the capacity the CFO said was "deployed late in Q2".
Our build. We model monthly AI cloud growth of 9% to 12% through Q3, slower than the roughly 16% a month Nebius averaged from March to June. That gives Q3 revenue of $934.5M, about 3% above the $905.7M consensus from 17 analysts and inside the $876.6M to $942.6M range. If growth held at the March to June pace, Q3 would be about $1,024M, above the top of the range.
Guidance is not a ceiling. Nebius guides 2026 revenue of $3.0B to $3.4B and year-end ARR of $7B to $9B. Because December ARR is December revenue times 12, the two targets are linked: every extra $1B of year-end ARR adds about $83M of December revenue. Our base case of $7.2B ARR gives $3.34B of revenue, near the top. Any year-end ARR above about $7.9B pushes 2026 revenue past $3.4B.
Margins are ahead of plan. The CFO guided to a dip in Q2; instead, group adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 41% from 32%, and AI cloud to 49.7%. We model 40% in Q3 and 42% in Q4, after the October 1 on-demand price increase of 17% to 21%.
The cost is capex. Nebius raised its 2026 capex guide to $20B to $25B and spent $8.13B in the first half, so the second half needs $11.9B to $16.9B. The other side is $37.5B of remaining performance obligations at June 30, up from $21.3B at the end of 2025, with about $13.5B expected within 24 months.
What to watch on the call: Q3 exit ARR (our model has $4.1B), when the Q2 contracts start billing, the Meta capacity for early 2027, and how the second-half capex gets funded.
The full preview, with the month-by-month build, the ARR sensitivity table and the backlog schedule, is here: Nebius Group (NBIS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
Data: SEC filings, earnings calls and company releases, processed by Equibles. Consensus as of October 27.
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