Nasdaq Sees Rising Volatility Near All-Time Highs

The Nasdaq has been moving a lot lately—or at least more than usual. To put it into perspective, since June 1 (inclusive), over the course of 27 trading sessions, the index has recorded an intraday move greater than 1% on 20 occasions, at least 1.5% on 14 occasions, and more than 2% seven times. By comparison, the average daily move over this period has been 1.47%, versus 0.90% over the previous 12 months (as of July 14, 2025).

We had already identified the ongoing sector rotation between more defensive and higher-growth areas of the market, with Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare leading gains over the past month. However, an equally important development within the Nasdaq is the rotation taking place inside the technology sector itself, particularly between the hyperscalers (which include several of the former Magnificent Seven names) and semiconductor manufacturers. In recent weeks, leadership has been constantly shifting between these groups, amplifying price swings even among the largest-cap stocks.

Last Friday, for example, Meta and Nvidia both gained more than 4%, while Marvell (-3.07%) and Intel (-2.40%) significantly underperformed. The end result? The Nasdaq finished the session up just 0.33%.

This trend is also visible through the Average True Range (ATR), which provides another interesting insight. The Nasdaq's 10-day daily ATR currently stands at 589 points, equivalent to roughly 2% of the index's value—a historically elevated reading.

Generally speaking, ATR levels this high tend to appear near the end of market corrections, as seen in August 2024 and April 2025. This time, however, they are occurring while the index is trading near the highs of a powerful bull run. Similar ATR readings were consistently observed between October 2025 and March 2026, before the last meaningful correction, but there is one important difference: back then, the ATR had been declining from nearly 1,000 points, whereas the 600-point area represented the peak reached during that period.

In short, the Nasdaq continues to climb, but it is doing so with a noticeable degree of nervousness.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Let's focus exclusively on the 4-hour chart, where a flag/triangle formation has been developing ever since the index broke above 28,000 after May 5. More importantly, the Nasdaq has never traded back below that level since the breakout, highlighting just how significant it has become.

CAPTION

The first key support is 28,700, which has repeatedly held over the past two months and is arguably the most important level on the chart. That said, 28,150—tested twice in early June—represents the classic "last line in the sand."

On the upside, traders should closely monitor the current resistance area around 29,300, followed by 29,950. The latter is particularly significant because it coincides with the descending trendline that originated on June 6 and has already been tested four times, making it a well-established resistance.

These two extremes—28,150 and 29,950—are the key levels to watch over the coming days. A decisive break below 28,150 would likely trigger a meaningful increase in volatility, while a breakout above 29,950 could pave the way for another attempt at the all-time highs above 30,750.

Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart remain broadly neutral but lean slightly bearish, with the RSI around 45. On the daily timeframe, the picture is somewhat weaker, with the MACD slipping below the zero line.

Overall, we continue to recommend a degree of caution while the Nasdaq trades near record levels. Keeping these technical levels firmly on the radar will be essential in the sessions ahead.