Mr. Market Plays ‘Concentration’

Below are some of the most interesting articles and charts I came across this week.

The stock market is becoming more highly concentrated than ever before.

'In June 2015, the top 10 accounted for 17.3% of the S&P 500 market value. As of June 20, 2023, the top 10 are 31.7%.' https://t.co/KmgVfnjeGJ by @HorizonKinetics pic.twitter.com/5Pi2GfwlNr
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 30, 2023

History suggests, however, that this may be a dangerous game.

'1929, 1973 and the dotcom bubbles all saw sustained monetary policy tightening and a clear divergence of surging bubble stocks vs the average stock moving sideways/falling.' https://t.co/LOOrHMs2rE by @VrntPerception
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 30, 2023

And valuations of some of the most popular Big Tech stocks may be unsustainably high.

'To the question of whether NVIDIA could be worth $400, the answer is yes, but the odds are low. Put simply, you need another market or two, with potential similar to the AI market, where NVIDIA can wield a dominant market share to justify its pricing.' https://t.co/dXOJ3PSRnH pic.twitter.com/qvq0gAcAS1
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 24, 2023

Meanwhile, sentiment has turned inordinately bearish on energy.

'Speculative positioning in the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract is below where it was at any time in 2020 indicating extreme bearishness, the stuff of which powerful snap-back rallies are made.' https://t.co/tFNd0mkTlW by @Haymaker_0 pic.twitter.com/5PDhAHX9ob
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 24, 2023

But the macro case for real assets is only growing more compelling.

"Because of large deficits the U.S. Treasury will have to sell a lot of debt and it appears there will not be adequate demand for it. If that happens, it will lead to either much higher interest rates or the Fed printing a lot of money." -@RayDalio https://t.co/rzS1sRcQnS
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 28, 2023

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