Happy July 4th! US futures are indicating a higher open this morning ahead of the holiday-shortened session. Treasury yields are lower, and the latest data hasn’t really done much to halt that slide. Mortgage applications slid, Private Payrolls released by ADP were weaker than expected, and Jobless Claims were only slightly lower than forecasts. There’s still a lot more data left on the calendar, though. Factory Orders, Durable Goods, and the ISM Services report will all be released at 10 AM Eastern. Stay tuned.
As mentioned above, the ADP Private Payrolls report missed expectations this morning coming in at a level of 102K versus forecasts for 140K. This month’s weaker print follows an even weaker reading of 41K last month. That takes the two-month rolling total of growth in private payrolls growth to 143K, which is the weakest two-month rate of growth since April 2010. Two months may not necessarily make a trend, but Private Payroll growth has fallen out of the longer-term range that it was in.
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