Looking at the daily perspective of the ES March contract we can observe Monday's support from the Yearly developing VAH level followed by a one-time-framing higher behavior that occurred for the past 5 days. Yesterday the market closed as an outside bar which is a sign of a possible change in the current market context - there is a higher probability of a change form bullish to balanced/rotational or bearish.
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Moving forward quickly to the TPO profiles we can observe a quite balanced profile with an open above value. In the early overnight session, the market dropped back into the value but formed an unsecured low followed by a surge higher to take out yesterday's high. With this we got the first sign of a possible bearish behavior to revisit the unsecured high - here a higher probability to revisit and take out the low as the momentum for lower prices was still intact with this particular indication.
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The setup was confluent with a divergence on the hourly timeframe which was trading above the developing weekly VWAP value - additionally, we have seen resistance and confluence around the daily VWAP's developing VAH level. This brought the market to lower prices in a purely technical view.
(Click on image to enlarge)
(Click on image to enlarge)
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