Oil volatile as US–Iran diplomacy hopes persist
Talk of progress in Qatar-mediated negotiations wiped out much of the war premium on Monday, when Brent fell about 7.6%. It has bounced back slightly this morning: Brent is at $105.8 and WTI at $97.4, both up about 1%.
US midterm elections today – voting is under way, and markets are bracing for volatility.
Wall Street (Monday close)
S&P 500: 7,541 (down 0.5%)
Nasdaq: 25,164 (down 1.1%), in correction territory after the chip selloff and AI spending worries
Dow: 51,984 (up 0.4%)
The US 10-year yield is at 4.91%, and the dollar index (DXY) is at 101.74.
Asia
Kospi: 5,626 (down 4.0%), the region’s weakest, hit by the chip rout and Apple’s China miss
Taiex: 43,200 (down 3.8%)
Shanghai Composite: 3,596 (down 1.2%)
Hang Seng: 23,451 (up 0.2%), supported by new Chinese market support measures
ASX 200: 8,887 (up 0.3%). The RBA raised rates by 25 bps to 4.85%, an 18-year high, on a 6–3 vote.
Nifty 50: 23,691 (up 1.1%)
Tokyo is closed for Culture Day.
FX
EUR/USD: 1.1193
USD/JPY: 157.84
Gold: $3,929 (down 1.0%). It is under pressure from December Fed hike bets and still well below its January peak.
Crypto
Bitcoin is at $76,600 (down 2.0%). Spot ETF outflows and the fallout from the Binance hack are weighing on sentiment.
Ahead: US Treasury refunding and ADP tomorrow, then the BoE decision on Thursday, where a hike is expected.
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