Market Pulse - Monday, Oct. 12

Geopolitics and oil

Oil is sliding as Trump announced a deal for Russia to supply diesel, and the US Treasury waived sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027. Brent is trading near $103.9 (–0.8%) and WTI near $90.7 (–1.3%). Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh’s airport, and the uncertainty around the Iran war keep the supply risk alive.

Wall Street and the Fed

US stocks closed Friday higher: Dow +0.83%, S&P 500 +0.59% (7,811.5), Nasdaq +0.64%. The S&P 500 is just below its record high after a strong week. The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 5.25%, close to a 24-year high. Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, and 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%.

Asian markets

Tokyo is closed for a holiday (Nikkei closed Friday at 69,031).

Hang Seng +0.07% (24,230)

Shanghai Composite –0.16% (3,808)

KOSPI –3.38% (6,402) – tech sell-off, foreign selling and Middle East worries

ASX 200 +0.76% (8,783)

Taiex +0.16%

Nifty 50 –0.48%

Forex, metals and crypto

• EUR/USD: 1.1202

• USD/JPY: 158.35

• GBP/USD: 1.3238

• Gold: ~$4,183 per oz (–0.27%) after three straight sessions of gains

• Bitcoin: ~$84,100 (+1.2%)

• Ethereum: ~$2,562 (+2.3%)

Today and this week

• Today: Cleveland Fed’s Hammack speaks. US bond markets are closed for Columbus Day, while stocks trade.

• Tuesday: JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report earnings.

• Wednesday: US September CPI – the key inflation test for the Fed.

• Thursday: UK August GDP.

• This week: China trade and inflation data.

Trade with care and manage your risk!