Market Briefing for Wednesday, March 11

Hurried interventions to stem-the-outflow weren't refined, but sprung on officials by the President, and though they are understaffed by smart people (including in the healthcare realm), this was welcomed of course.

Hurried interventions to stem-the-outflow - weren't refined, but sprung on Officials by the President, and though they are understaffed by smart people (including in the healthcare realm), this was welcomed of course.  

WuFlu cases are multiplying rapidly, as the former Trump DHS Secretary seriously said that 'it's now or never' if we're going to stop this from spreading in a very bad way (aka.. South Korea or Italy, and have to address it the harder way). Trump believes the level of alarm has been exacerbated by journalists writing pieces saying that a runny nose is a main symptom (it is not) despite the fact that it's seen in fewer than 5% of patients and then virtually never in the absence of major symptoms. So it's no wonder that 100 million people around the world with a runny nose then wonder/worry unnecessarily about this virus, such as the Italian train station panic when someone sneezes as they try to escape Milan.  

Quality of reporting varies. It might be slightly abysmal in terms of serious discussion, but no more so than a sophomoric approach by government. Trump thinks he's helping-out, but will fail to be appreciated if he doesn't smell-the-coffee that this is his 'Katrina Moment', and that in a sense he is now a 'wartime President'. When people continue to do things shown by a few other countries not to work, why would he expect different results? 

By the way, just as a note as there's so much nervousness about testing, or how to know (especially absent a reliable test you'd almost have to do weekly, since how long does a negative test mean you're not exposed at another encounter?):  

How do you know if you might have COVID-19? The major symptoms are a fever and dry cough. These are also common with the flu, but the flu is more likely to also come with aches and pains. If you've got a runny nose and sneezing that's less likely from coronavirus and probably just a cold. This helps frame whether you should consult medical professionals, I am told, although just a general observation, definitely not medical advice. 

 Bits & Bytes: someone suggested that Vascepa will help with Covid-19. Not exactly. So a quick update on Amarin (AMRN). Rather disappointed that while Vascepa works great (I'm using it as well as writing about it), their insider selling persists plus some funds did lighten up in the prior quarter, as for sure 10b5 plans allow that, but execs don't have to liquidate shares. As to the funds, some may have returned, but price action doesn't say so.

If Amarin wins in Reno Federal Court this month (presumably) and 'if' this launch of Vascepa ramps as anticipated, the shares should easily double in the next year from current levels if we don't get more dilution, surprises from a slightly-clever (too much so at times?) management or the global depression that potentially looms, but ideally will be sidestepped (that is not to say we have an overreaction because the reality is Washington is not behaving adequately and the President upsets me with his restraint of people who know, like his former head of DHS who says 'now or never' to fight this by doing what Italy's doing, before we are compelled to do it.  

 

In-sum:  the market rallied more with the President's Payroll Tax ideas, but none of this will defy the reality that many persist denying. Given that I'm chatting with folks in various parts of the country I am well aware that the perspective about the WuFlu, versus regular winter seasonal influenzas, or the economic ramifications, and political interpretation as well as how or whether the media is 'hyping' the whole situation.. it all varies a lot as to what the situation is where you are. I understand that, and also that it is better to be safe than sorry, and get a handle on this while possible, if the window to do so isn't already quickly closing.

Disclosure:

This is an excerpt from Gene's Daily Briefing (distributed nightly), which typically includes videos as well as more charts and analysis.

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