Slight tracking errors - will determine if an historically dangerous Cat 4 hurricane sideswipes, complete misses, or confounds the computer models, which suggest irregular approaches to the U.S. mainland.
It's that way in markets and negotiations too. Whether we sideswipe to slightly higher highs and even then manage to see an S&P pummeled anew during September is absolutely pending as well.
That will depend on 'trade negotiations' (seemingly with both sides backtracking on hostile comments most recently; but with live-fire gun rounds being fired in Hong Kong protests today); or even a pulling of intended tariff add-on's in the last moment by President Trump.
Aside global and domestic politics and the approaching storm; there's the interest rate dilemma; which I suspect can turn bond market topsy turvey if you get a trade deal and 'perceptions' of gradual recovery.
It's also a bit of a ruse to hear pundits debate 'whether or not we enter a recession'; since so much we've share for over a year suggests that sector-by-sector we have rotated into one; when you put aside what's perceived as consumer spending that relates to other than essentials.
In-sum: several challenges we realize are 'known unknowns' are still demanding checkmate responses; and the contests are still on. But at the same time leaders (albeit not monetary authorities) generally sort of seem to be less at loggerheads and more resigned to sorting it out.
We are in the 'eyes of these storms'; and while they are not resolved, as least fortunately Hurricane Dorian looks like it will hopefully miss the populated heart of the Florida Gold Coast with the worst winds of a type that can be like a bulldozer scraping everything flat; protected by shutter or not.
These last 3 years I have managed to be away during peak Hurricane season; primarily because I attend IFA (technology show) in Berlin; it's literally at the same time; and I again tied-it in with a preceding cruise; although this one has not been so relaxing due to a slight cold (nearly bronchitis) I picked-up (and clearing quite well now thanks to gracious pharmacists in Italy who miraculously provided the needed Z-pack).
In the U.S. if we had a VAT tax that intended to retire the US National Debt, that would be one thing; but knowing Washington it would find a way to spend the money on something other than relieving the burden of debt. To the contrary; they want these low rates so they can more or less lock in long-term low rates (I speculated a year ago surprise it had not occurred to the Fed and Treasury to do just that while able; as instead they were offloading the Balance Sheet and moving into short durations at the time; perhaps there's no alternative to this approach; but it doesn't mean TINA for the stock market without interruptions).
Enjoy your Holiday weekend; stay safe of course if anywhere near the roving track of Dorian.
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