Very flat market. Some technical deterioration for S&P but that's normal. Let's see how this sorts out more next week.
Summer Stall is an expression heard to describe this week. Considering all 'false' arguments (some are propaganda) about the 'state of the war' and also regarding the Fed's prospects to hike rates next week (nil basically since we have sluggish consumerism with higher Oil prices impacting rates 'but' that's not a normal focus for the FOMC to move upon, barring some surprises).
In any event it's a mixed market, easing here and there; but not dramatic; so it could well be a set-up for more upside in 'selected' stocks next week; while for sure it helps if the war doesn't deliver negative news and the Fed neutrality is extended, while some additional hints at 'counter-drone' spending surfaces.
S&P (SPY) flipping-point or risk-pivot is where macro stands ... bounces look more like rallies to breakdown points more than turning back higher; but that's also not unusual; doesn't presage disaster; nor anything particularly constructive.
So it's not really rotation, but they're trying to engineer that (or will 'soon'). For the most part we see the relative value in 'new-era' advanced defense (that's sadly not yet adequate to help much in fighting Iran; but could have been if a few stodgy types in DC had observed Ukraine's success against Russia just a bit better, or more properly said simply 'sooner').
Market X-ray: sort of a 'stall' or yawn, with no big drama on Friday. That's fine by the way; considering you still have a cadre of pessimists looking for crash behavior, which is not what's happening, and usually doesn't when they're out there panting for misery. Not to mention, like them or not, you have a White House team that is very much attuned to economics and sustaining markets; or I should say 'containing' markets within ranges generally acceptable limits.
Very flat market. Some technical deterioration for S&P but that's normal. Let's see how this sorts out more next week.
We are patiently waiting for Dept of War and other customer news that fuels aspirations several of our 'new-era' tickers hold. Some of that ought to relate to the late Fiscal Year spending 'cut-off deadline' as there are few weeks remaining for Fiscal 2026 DoW/TSA contract awards. Also some of the 'deals' (and acquisitions you see) are likely corporate preparations 'for' anticipated business ... look at the composition of the Board of Directors and Advisory Boards of a couple companies, and you have pretty clear hints of what 'could' be afoot, never a guaranteed result, but certainly reflects 'objectives' and plans.
Trading in these tickers we're in is enough of an adventure, and I hope it becomes favorably memorable as we look back several months hence. So far this year is sort of o.k.; absolutely not any consistent experience we might prefer. I think that's obviously evident in almost all sectors, including hyper-calers too. Dynamics are fluid everywhere.
Disclosure:
This is an excerpt from Gene's Daily Briefing (distributed nightly), which typically includes videos as well as more charts and analysis.
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