Market Briefing for Tuesday, March 14

Overt obstacles obviously overlooked overarching technical behavior; as you know leaving the market pundits either confused or groveling, for some sort of an 'explanation' as to why the market fails to accommodate their very aggressive calls for decline, or even carnage; none of which is happening.

Here that's no surprise despite our own recognition that a correction should be out there, but as I'm prone to say: 'just not quite yet'. In the past week, to me it was pretty clear the 'odds' favored stability or even upside, for a single basic reason: declines were attempted but got nowhere on the downside.

That was special as it occurred even in the presence of weak Oil. Plus a lot of traders opined that the commodity markets were collapsing so Oil and of course stocks in general would follow. We demurred, and collapse did not occur; nor do we expect it to, 'just as of yet'.

Sure there are plenty of unknowns that leave the backdrop quizzical at least on the surface. Those include an upcoming FOMC meeting, with a probable rate hike, the Dutch Elections, the Budget / Debt Ceiling holiday 'deadline', a questionable geopolitical situation, and of course the confounding status of a more ore less 'dead on arrival' (at least as it stands now) Healthcare Bill.

Of these, which is the most dangerous? Probably North Korea. Today WSJ reports echoed those from Seoul, and rather specifically (that's unusual) did outlined the 'units' and force levels being deployed for the annual exercises with the Republic of Korea (South Korea).

Remember a 'state of war' technically exists between United Nations forces and North Korea, because only an Armistice was signed in 1953; not Peace. The 'revelation' that (for the first time) 'SEAL Team 6' will join Delta Force as well as Army Rangers in the exercise clearly reflects the 'option' to prepare a decapitation strike (taking out the wacko un-leader) as well as WMD and all nuclear facilities (easier said then done).

One big problem remains should the dictator decide not to back down to at least a quieter simmer, and that's his mass artillery positioning, within firing range of Seoul. That can't be jammed by cyber-warfare nor shot-down; thus is probably why the U.S. has played games with this guy for years, often to the point of acquiescing and providing supplies. China isn't happy about the increased preparations or THAAD deployment; but haven't mobilized forces to aid the North if it came to it, which suggests both that they believe it won't and that the North would mostly be on its own. Hopefully a deterrent.

Furthermore, the point of March/April for 'exercises' shouldn't be overlooked as the U.S. knows the misery of war-fighting on the Korean Peninsula in the Winter; thus the largest annual force buildup occurs in Spring. If dictator Kim wishes war he'd be a greater fool to try it now; when we have 2 carriers (for the first time in these exercises) as well as Japan's first dispatch of it's sole carrier (a helicopter 'destroyer' as they call it due to their pacifist regulations) to join the U.S., South Korean, and incidentally Indian naval forces. Some of the training will continue in the South China Sea after the Korean exercises.

Bottom-line:

The market remains on hold ahead of the FOMC and as we've suggested, possibly more relief rallying once that's out of the way. No small hike is going to dislodge the markets for now. It will take something more.