Market Briefing for Thursday, January 19

Reversals of policies are probably battles that loom for social policies, but the world isn't going to radically reverse many moves toward equality during Obama's time. That was one of the President's main points during his 'final' news conference (yes the rumor that he's still President is correct despite appearances.. that was slight humor).

However we believe the main focus that will relate to America's strength is going to be growth of jobs and repatriation of factories and capital to the US over the years just ahead. Achieving that will cause the nervous youth to go forward with their lives and careers, perhaps more than otherwise possible, and they should beam with radiance as this transformation progresses and they even excel. Often these will be the same who are so agitated now.

So yes I think opportunities will not only be retained, but expanded upon as time evolves. That's where I'm optimistic that Trump (when all is recognized) turns out to be far more centrist than extreme conservatives expect, and far less authoritarian or engaged in demagoguery (other than as necessary part of 'the deal' when it comes to a 'trade' negotiation) then the ultra-left naively presumes (using clearly intolerant linear thinking).

Of course the usual problem with history is that the future isn't yet known; at the same time as we see the prospect for Trump (especially if influenced at least a bit more by Kushner than by others) to govern surprisingly fairly to a slew of those who have been brainwashed by the opposition. This matters a lot to the market, to society, and to cohesiveness of this Nation's integrity.
 

Daily action was extraordinarily neutral on Wednesday, very much still in the mode of few sellers but also an absence of significant buyers. Outside the Dow, the balance was generally on the upside, and even the Dow might have been up if not for a bit of softness in Oil, attributed to production gains in the US shale fields, but in reality they were looking for an excuse.

  

Basically nothing changed; the acrimony around politics remains the same as people just can't cope with the idea that Trump may actually have some sort of healthcare proposal coming that really is better than what's been of course controversial all along. If so, watch the mood change among many of those opposed to his Presidency; which does not mean I'm not critical of a few aspects, or of some of the appointees.

It was a rough campaign and a combination of flawed candidates (including Trump), but beyond just 'lesser of evils' comparisons, Trump's ego and just seems to be actual desire, is to be a successful President and help people; regardless (or maybe because) of his massive superficial lack of humility. I know people who know him (one member here and another) who say both that he's cheap and arrogant, and another who says internally the reverse.

So sure, we're all 'betting' on his success, or should be even if disliking the man. I do believe (per last night's remarks) that he's going up against deep state (to the extent that exists with both parties). Perhaps Joe Biden's very emotional speech (almost a tirade) in Davos about running if he can walk (it is how he put it) in 2020 and how this is the demise of global democracy, reflects how the globalists feel about it.

Actually democracy had slipped lots in the last couple years globally while extra-national governance was the pressure that pushed some (like Britain) to rebel against it. The assumption the globalists make is that the system is dissolving, and I'm hoping that's premature. I think it needs to be tamed to a level that is tolerable (especially as relates to trade and jobs here); and that it was noble and laudable to a point; which was exceeded years earlier. If it is reformed not discarded, and we reconcile bilateral trade and security or other deals along the way; there's probably no reason for to despair.

That by no means suggests we won't have a market decline; just saying it would be a reset that allows further upward progression rather than a cycle ending secular fiasco that the permabears keep pointing to as the prospect.