Market Briefing For Monday, March 9

Pivotal times persist - while our 'Global Defense' & drone / security tickers seem to be emblematic of the primary theme of this market; while maintaining optimism, along with and prayers for our troops, normal civilians in the war-zone, and eventually a 'peace' that is worth the effort. Or at least that was the case sort of 'alternating' rough Friday trading swings.

Notably Friday was heavy to start in the big-caps (Jobs Data contributed even if 'transitional' as the saying goes); with 'software' big-caps contributing to the brunt of selling, while the stocks we've focus on this year mostly moved up in the midst of what otherwise was a defensive market below key S&P levels. It stayed that way through an inconclusive session; despite some comebacks.

Trading was so spirited Friday; you'd never guess t was just a 1% net decline for S&P, with Oil at $92/bbl. But maybe that's a sense of complacency that the 'Iranian War' will resolve soon. I don't think so fast; but you never know. While POTUS talked of 'Unconditional Surrender' early Friday; later he spoke to' reaching a clear and favorable deal'; the context of that was unclear. So which is it; if the Islamic radicals have 'no role to play' at all in a future government of Iran or some sort of compromise (and you can't compromise with Islamists; at the same time the Saudi's are trying to talk to them. Obviously not Venezuela.

The Dow's worst week in almost a year; triggered primarily by Oil price rises; was actually pretty decent for us; good enough in this kind of action. Trading of course relates around Iran and (if or when) the President's 'firm' stance on high fighting levels will end. There is pressure from Gulf states to settle down.

You could call it a 'structured' situation since Trump says nothing less than an 'unconditional surrender' will do; but then again 'sort of' countered that later in the day. I think that's constructive in one way, since at least clearly telegraphs (as least he primary remark on the topic) that there's 'no postwar' governance remotely acceptable with any radical clerics left in position to run that country.

Of course it's all in-flux and outcome unknown; so perhaps I'll reflect more on this next week, or even via 'X' on the weekend, should greater drama unfold.

Bottom-line: the giant bottleneck of the Straits of Hormuz is for the moment the primary impetus for broad stock market action; and that can shift rapidly to the inverse, once you get a cascading unraveling of the tight situation; which could be sooner or later. Of course it's rising as a big dramatic global problem (not so much in the USA, which is in my humble thinking, 'why' we secured Venezuela first, in the scope of how all this progresses, presuming there is a 'master plan' to stabilize the 'free world' and particularly the West, over time).

So sure, the Jobs number played a role, but it's the war and Oil prices mostly impacting. I do NOT expect any sort of to 'mission accomplished' statement at least not this early. No indication that either side is ready to de-escalate.. yet.

Should Oil prices stay high, most presume it complicates the Fed policy. I see it differently, since failing to cut rates per general plan (and wishes of incoming Fed leadership) won't change the pricing aspects for consumers; when you do not want to 'hike' rates during an Oil price spike, which was the class mistake the Fed made make in the 1970's, as it wasn't the only one during Carter time and I think they Fed knows that. So how things re-open in the Persian Gulf is 'up in the air', and the radical regime may not care much about lost revenue, since it's pretty clear 'they' will be out of the 'oil business' very soon anyway.

If there's one beneficiary of this, it's Russia and may be part of why they aren't helping their 'so-called' friend in Tehran, while Putin stated that he'd never be fighting Israel, since a couple million are Russian speakers. True, but more to it noted....so while Russia can get a better Oil sales price to China or India; it's the United States holding most of the cards (self-sufficient plus Venezuela).

That's enough; we'll see what the new week brings... time for an effort to rest.