Market Briefing for Monday, March 2

Comparative metrics and responses aren't generally applicable in the situation we're in, which is biological rather than financial in origin, and as well in determining the duration of duress, and what measures may help, or even hurt, the efforts to enhance stability and maintain morale too. I'll discuss this via videos and have all week. Dependence on intervention by the Fed, for-instance, is helpful, but won't resolve things alone.  

Public policy and international cooperation matter more than worries now than even 'fear' China is trying to strangle the United States by depriving us of goods. That's the most insane take (from conservative sources) I've heard. The lines should be drawn between discipline and control, and for sure not relying just on algorithmic signals to determine where this goes. I also believe, while he doesn't speak to it properly (not delegate authority to the right people, like Dr. Fauci being in-charge) Trump wants health as well as safety for the public, and yes that matters most, and politics need to not just take a back-seat, but get out of the mix (though they won't). 

If we're to speculate about how this ends and when, since we were early in recognizing the WuFlu (before it had a name I dubbed it that), we will suggest there will be another huge rebound coming up, but not from any 'emergency' intervention by the Fed, though that's feasible (as it would launch an unsustainable pop). More likely I tend to (hope) the President is right, not about a 'miracle' of course, but rather seriously warm weather suppressing the viral spread (it won't be going away for real, and will thus emerge anew in the Fall if it does subside). 

Hence we're focused not on politics, not on wishful thinking, not even on valuation (because the market is catching-down with more realistic value levels), and that's part of why the rapid decline experienced as truly basic fundamentals all had to be realigned looking toward later this year and in 2021, but on science-based prevention and therapeutic treatments.

In the shorter-run we will likely see more bad news, and there is a rising sense of 'leaders dying', which I suspect means someone knows more in some circles than what's being discussed. Certainly concern for the Pope is supreme, as now it appears he intentionally shook hands with victims of the disease, as that's inexplicable, although we know he was out doing unprecedented hand-shaking two days ago (now canceled more events).  

The death of the Iranian Vice President is notable because he visited the impacted area, and even China's President Xi went out wearing a mask, although my medical sources (yes a Doctor friend who was skeptical of it at the start) emphasizes that most masks, even N-95, are not impervious to viral penetration, unless properly fitted to the face and with ear filters and plastic shields over the eyes, too. (I think if it come this way I'll wear my usual Speedo Swim Goggles along with my supply of N-95 masks.)