Market Briefing For Monday, June 8, 2026

Ahead of its skis - mega-cap tech has been resisting gains for weeks; and a couple 'obstacles' not only accelerated the setbacks, but sobered the sector. I know it's easy to view mega-cap / hyper-scaler / semiconductor slaughter, as a violent response to excess, more so than higher yield concerns. Or look at our old AMD and MU are good examples of weak performance (percentage hits larger than for META and others.. conservative (current since 20) INTC hit too; all of which are still dramatically higher than entry points (of us or other players..but makes the point we've tried for weeks of not chasing the big boys.

Here's my point: this wildly negative overall market day could conjure up more than a 'June Swoon'; even pondering a 'Black Monday' coming right up. Of course it has people talking of the Fed tightening (hardly); but again that will depend on Oil prices. And that's why it's not responsible to call for a calamity of greater proportions (at least yet); because the rally in the semiconductors as well as the hardware complex was ferocious and overdue to set-back. So the Labor 'good news' can be 'good news' 'if' we get an oil price break soon; and hence the inflationary narrative regarding consumers - and politics - will change. Nobody wants to speak to the concern of the situation promulgating a less-business-friendly government in DC; so we won't be specific about that either ... hah. We do think that lingers in the back of some minds in New York.

Along the way we've pointed out the deterioration in crypto (partially perhaps correlation to 'money laundering' in the Middle East, which is part of where the game in Dubai is rooted, and much of the corrupt Iranian IRGC money finds a home.. and literally lots of condos for those terrorists too incidentally). Sure, it is most visibly for a general investment crowd, by the behavior of Bitcoin I've noted contributed to 'cross-asset liquidation' again; not the first time and likely not the last; but it is a factor that's mostly ignored by financial analysts now.

Before I shift to SpaceX or geopolitics, let me just note that it's impossible at this point to cull-out what happens (if anything) between now and Monday. It's been in the air that this is a 'big-cap seller's market' and that's why we focus, even now, on small-cap growth new-era tickers with more upside potential vs. rebound potential in the mega-caps. We're not in the clear on any topics; but they say buy when there's blood in the Streets; and there is that right now. If we are going to get an Iran deal; that changes next week's pattern; if not you can get this reversion triggering compelled liquidations before a rebound.. in either alternative I suspect new-era tickers to be more attractive than others.

YMMV as they say; and in this case the weekend will determine orthodoxy or something different as far as the kick-off Monday. Back to 'beyond' one-trick pony stocks (AI, chips, storage and the data-center themes etc.); and we see value developing. Your own demeanor and propensity for risk is what may guide you in the immediate future, rather than my opinion on stocks.

Another obstacle is SpaceX, which I also caution against chasing the IPO; and especially as the way it's structured; certain insiders will be able to exit a lot sooner than a standard lock-up-restriction multi-month delay for such sales .. so retail buyers will typically be buying from those who are in previously. Oh and the media pitches about 'getting in' early; that's generally nonsense or to sell services or newsletters (using SpaceX as a tool to attract investors).

There's one other aspect to this: S&P will 'not' include SpaceX immediately; but NDX (via its ETF QQQ) will. That disrupts balance and contributes to sales in the Nasdaq 100 and perhaps some buying of defensive stocks. So this 'may' be a transitory scenario here just before the IPO; but we don't know.

My tendency has been to focus on geopolitics in June, and I still do. We shall see if SpaceX is a 'sideshow' to the main event; though specifically for stocks, it's the 'center ring of the circus' for the moment at least. I do believe any deal with Iran would immediately - if temporarily - yet again reverse this defensive market, with June again working higher; even though morality says you can never work with that terrorist regime, that willingly oppresses and quite openly murders its own citizens.

I suspect we tried to get weapons to 'the Iranian masses'; sadly failed in that endeavor; and moved to 'Plan B' (or 'C'). However, instead of renewed threats of bombing, which has not shown an ability to get capitulation from the Iranian regime, perhaps some bombing should resume by the U.S., with Israel deftly taking-out their 'command & control' and communications (Mossad and IDF are both very good at electronic warfare and can again flood the zone with a large number of fighter jets) is logical; with one difference.

The United States could recall President Trump's original admonition to help 'free the people' of Iran; and tell them 'now it's time; go into the streets, don't get mowed-over and if they try to shoot you again, mow them over. We will have helicopters (such as the AH-64 Apache) overhead, and take them out (the Iranian terror police and so on) as best able and perhaps we can overtly bring weaponry to the masses of humanity there. This may be too optimistic or enthusiastic a gamble to take to free Iran; but there's a feeling more attacks on missile and nuclear facilities won't be sufficient to get rid of the regime.

As to civilian infrastructure, and joint-use (military and civilian) bridges and so on could be taken-out; maybe all of it simultaneously. .. Alternatively just give the regime 5 days to surrender all weaponry; open the Strait of Hormuz and then talk. Again, what do I know... just throwing-out some possibilities along with a suspicion that new attacks alone won't be sufficient to get this resolved.

Market X-ray: real drama is possible in the weak ahead; not just market; not just Iran, but the rules that have changed regarding mega-cap listing; not just SpaceX but of course including that. No changes will be made to S&P rules; it will see a small add of SpaceX in the NDX; but we'll see the disparities. I think 'no S&P inclusion' it takes a piece of 'guaranteed' demand out of the question.

I need to share a bearish alternative; temporary rebound or not forthcoming: it relates not just to AI and hyper-scaler warnings addressed for weeks, but the S&P decision not to 'fast track' AI companies into indexes; at least not as yet. Their comment related to 'not including companies that don't make' money, or a comment close to that. Hence it's a blow to OpenAI and Anthropic. So now we shall see what they accomplish..or not... with the White House meeting.

Ponder if billions disappear from SpaceX demand because of similar no-list inclusion? I personally view Google's Gemini as 'free' (or close to free if you want the paid version for programmers etc.) Does Open Source kill revenue models for AI at least at the consumer level? Perhaps so at this point. So let me suggest Friday's decline is nominally involving Jobs, interest rates, Iran, or so forth. Maybe it's more about core customers of stocks like NVDA or AMD not so interested in buying GPU's in the future.

I know I've said that happens anyway from Quantum (hence why we preferred to retain some QBTS) over time; but now we're talking of AI behemoths with big debt pondering sufficient interest in their intended IPO's; so maybe that's the S&P message 'really' forming a backdrop for the accelerated tech decline.

(It eroded for weeks; so now we ask not about Quantum, but whether this all stems from the worries I expressed for over a year, about excess data-center, storage and power etc. build-outs, when newer combinations of Quantum and Photonics (you can include KOPN; to a degree OPTX or even RDW in the realm of indirect players to benefit from simpler more efficient approaches to inter-connectivity or lower heat and power consumption on land or in space.)

I prefer it's not a 'house of cards' for the old-line leaders; because like we saw Friday: "when they raid the Bordello; they take the good girls, bad girls as well as the Madam and piano player", as my old story goes. Like I often say, I just want the backdrop to be benign enough for new-era tickers to grow and gain traction over time. I think that happens; just would rather not go through one of the catharsis periods as we've seen twice over the past two years. I really don't care if money's raised for SpaceX or OpenAI / Anthropic; but market will.

Again it's not about pivoting to defensive stocks for a slowdown (nonsense or noise to a degree); it's about whether there's 'demand for the several IPO's; and I am not referring to selling some to buy the the big Offering... some of it for sure... I think it's S&P declining listing prospects and sobering about what business models will really generate revenue for the AI & GPU purveyors. Or will Quantum and 'light-based Server-connectivity come so soon it dims all reasons to invest so much in what essentially will be 'last-generation goods' (just imagine the combination of D-Wave Quantum with KOPN optical as that replaces copper wires in the data-center servers.. as soon as late this year.

(Excess funds relate to Open Ai & Anthropic IPO's more than to SpaceX).

Amidst all this we remain quite optimistic for the future of counter-drones etc.