Our suspicion is (barring bad news) for more upside this week allowing for a dip to 'test out' the bears' mettle, while allowing intraweek traders some entry.
A 'circle of jerks' is how one 'network commentator' actually referred to the current politicians and monetarists of this Country. Perhaps that's an injustice to the politicians (whether overly critical or flattering); or maybe it might apply to the fairly neurotic short-term traders, who inevitably try to make more hay out of straws in the wind, as to where the so-called stock market goes next.
So far it's erratic against a backdrop mostly of a return of AI to the helm lifting Indexes, while much of the rest of the list meanders directionless. Part of that was a lukewarm response to the 'Iran Deal' (speaking of an MOU that settles almost nothing aside opening the Strait of Hormuz to Oil tanker traffic [maybe] a nd of course that's part we knew the market would care about; even if the so-called 'deal' was a crock in terms of what it really settles as to regional conflict).
Also Thursday 'was' Quarterly Triple Witching Expiration; so we suspected that would be limiting or restraining much action on Thursday, after weekend of possible news surprises (hopefully not, hence allowing) next week to see a minor retreat (for intraweek trader positioning) preceding another rally effort.
Market X-ray: obviously POTUS signing the perceived mediocre MOU as he landed in Paris late Wednesday (not the original plan) was the spark for a lift we noted in the Futures market (S&P stronger then than at any time Thursday by the way). Considering it was Quarterly Expiration; holding on was actually a good bit impressive; and S&P closed right at 7500; defeating 'Bulls & Bears' (either side) placing bets on the market being above or below that level.
Our suspicion is (barring bad news) for more upside next week; allowing for a dip to 'test-out' the bears' mettle, while allowing intraweek traders some entry.
Bottom line: We'll see if news over the weekend doesn't inhibit a normal trading flow in the weeks ahead. That could allow a shuffle (or even dip) post-Expiration; and then an intraweek rally. Most small-caps did not fare well during this Expiration; and many big-caps remain at ridiculous expensive levels even if they move higher.
New readers should know that we did recommend Intel for the conservative types as it probed below 20; it's a far bigger home-run that estimated. Same earlier with AMD around 16; or way back with Apple around 57. But I'm not going to encourage chasing those stocks now; that's ludicrous even if and as they advance (I hope they do; as it helps backdrop psychology hold together).
We focus on Ondas etc., because it and others like Syntec Optics, Lantronix, Kopin, Unusual Machines and so on.. are in earlier growth phases; volatile for sure; but also not stretched insanely based on valuation projections, which of course may or may not pan out. Not all will work hence we hold several; and that is who I chose to approach the current market. Your stance and personal risk tolerance may differ and that's fine. Mostly I invested in these at a lower level and hold for the intermediate to longer-term so am generally aware of all the nuanced day-to-day moves, but they will not automatically change how I'm approaching holding such stocks; often as others freak I'll even add some.
Of course this could change and might if overall market structures shift ... at this point it's the geopolitical structure that seems challenged more so that the financial structure, and I even suspect certain officials wanted to focus more on finance than on America's stature in the world. But that's a different topic.
Disclosure:
This is an excerpt from Gene's Daily Briefing (distributed nightly), which typically includes videos as well as more charts and analysis.
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