Market Briefing For Monday, June 22

 Executive Summary:

• Volatile Quarterly Expiration was already in-the-cards; and exaggerated as Apple evidenced what most already knew (but not the market?); that being a resurgence of Covid-19 in key states, even as 'death rates' diminish;

• President Trump's Tulsa rally was uneventful (actually lighter attendance vs. expectations, regardless of the reasons/spins as to why that was so); a key remark might be that Trump states he did more for the black community over the last 3 years than Joe Biden in 47 years (preview of the campaign);

• More notably politically; a story is out suggesting there's been a 'coup plot' interrupted; intended to oust Mexico's President Obrador (AMLO); now it's unlikely as the story has surfaced (Mexico's economic relationship matters and their struggle with Covid is perhaps underappreciated here in the US);

• Post-Expiration weakness might reverse a slide with an intraweek rally that becomes a bit more crucial; but has lowered prospects of succeeding unless it is totally dominated by pandemic-benefiting technology stocks, and Oil; I talk about that in the main video late this Saturday night;

• Early take is that 'mask compliance' is pretty good on this first day (at least in Florida) of mandatory mask-wearing; with many businesses simply not admitting anyone not wearing a mask (and offering one free);

• Death of a 17-year-old in Central Florida (with co-morbidities) brings home risk to a portion of the population that believes they're invincible; because at an age most of us barely recall, they actually are pretty much invincible;

• Stock market pattern remains in a shaky but ongoing trading-range for S&P; while many non-super-cap stocks have slowly been correcting internally. 

 

  

Meanwhile . . as the greatest influence in the market (capitalization-weighted Indexes); Apple (AAPL) of course had immediate impact. What might get interesting is if this results in a follow-through decline Monday; that then reverses; and in part should Apple, as I suspect, introduce new Services and products at their (virtual) WWDC.  

Overall the Country's not going to shutdown again; although cavalier no-masks choices, by many citizens (they say mostly just youngsters, but my impressions at a couple outings, is a cross-section of ages) to a degree contributes directly to the flare-up of Covid-19 in many states. And I get it; so not shaming anyone, while (especially at my age) I'll wear a good mask 'and' face shield at times. A reminder: many of the healthcare workers who got sick, were exposed not from patients, but from coffee rooms or thinking they were safe when changing from scrubs to street clothes and so on. Perhaps the idea of shedding clothes right as one arrives home from any questionable activity still makes some sense?  

And as I've contended, that is so important to the economic revival; that all who trivialize its importance really are negative, on the prospects of getting through this until there's a vaccine choice, or better antiviral treatment with efficacy shy of waiting for advanced lung illness (ARDS) to set in. 

Daily action requires little more discussion for now; given the political tension; AG Barr's failure (reversed Saturday by the President, with controversy that will follow) to fire the Southern District of New York's US Attorney (now left); the tepid Tulsa rally; and for that matter; a further record spike in Covid-19 Cases in many parts of the USA. That includes 6 staffers working on Trump's rally today that just tested positive (required it seems for all who will be in near-proximity to the President when he arrives). Neither pro nor con; with no market meaning.  

If there's a plus out of this unorthodox health and political maze, perhaps it's that the often-called-complacent and materialistic generation has awakened, to what we might call the first compulsory civics lesson (not all good; but that's history of course) to finally have a grasp on not just how divided we are; but maybe how it reflects the differences, and in a sense we could cherish rather than disdain all the imperfections of the American 'Experiment', which make this a great country. Wishful thinking about calming the extremes; I'm sure; but some recent lunacy goes beyond any sense of who we are as well as were, as a Nation.