SpaceX (SPCX) surged in its public debut, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire and creating volatility for space peers. Investors are hunting for bargains among tech and space tickers ahead of a high-stakes Fed meeting.
The center ring of Friday's circus - was of course dominated by SpaceX (SPCX) as it finally is public, with the symbol SPCX, and has now made millionaires from the (generally deserving) working engineers and assemblers at Tesla (TSLA) who had the early-entry opportunity. For the public, the entry was 150 or higher; as that was the opening trade; and dutifully the media acted 'as if' it was up 26 points on the day (yes, but only for insiders); whereas it was up 11 at the 161 close.
So Elon is now the world's first trillionaire (is it spelled right? lol...never had to type it before); and the shares were off the 178 high by around 17 points. It is great that so many employees of Tesla were the primary insides in the 135 offering; and we will watch the ragged-parsed 'post-periodic lockup restriction' as it unfolds; but for now we're not interested in trading this. Option availability should start on Tuesday and we might or might not fiddle with those a bit.
What we will 'fiddle' with are new-era tickers expanding slightly with the idea of 'space' stocks getting more focus. We've ventured in before; such as with Intuitive Machines (LUNR) and sold LUNR for more than a double; but too soon.. if you kept any, great for you as it tripled after that. We also (too early) dabbled in a satellite company that Lockheed (LMT) later bought; and we hold Redwire (RDW) from lower and retain only a little LightPath (LPTH) (satellite communications are part of the area they don't speak much about) after taking a great profit on that one (and by the way as it retreats to about where we sold the 1.69 position near 12+; we might just reload holdings somewhat; but that's to be determined).
Market X-ray: aside the Index strength and constant droning about SpaceX, (which changed little after the first thrust mustered the 170's and fades to the 160's); there was defensive or downright retreats in 'other' space plays today; that many analysts figured would rise in-concert. Most rallied earlier this week and so we figure the pullback especially into early next week makes sense for aggressive buyers; provided of course we don't get some geopolitical fiasco.
As to whether the so-called 'deal' with Iran is viable; probably not, even if it is agreed to over the weekend. As of this publication; officials are optimistic 'on the surface'; Iran has a different interpretation with different terms; but nobody is inclined to believe them; and even Tehran officially says a deal has 'never been closer'. Also Israel is nervous about this so-called deal, and they ought to be, as Trump is 100% correct that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon .. ever. Shades of Vietnam, where the U.S. put B-52's over Hanoi for 12 days straight, and essentially bombed them to the peace table. Not saying we'd do exactly that, as the general population being freed is supposed to be a goal.
At the same time the USAF could 'mow the grass along Iran's Persian Gulf' shoreline; so if there's no deal that might be what one could envision. And if that's the case it would imply either a fast capitulation or regime collapse.
I have no doubt that the Iranian regime is trying to 'play us' with this deal.
SpaceX is launched decently; with Options coming in a few days.. we are focused on relative bargains among other tech tickers, space included, that faded in-sync with the SPCX IPO. We agree that revenues are far sooner for say an ONDS than for the newly-added SIDU; but we want some representation is space plays; such as with RDW too. As to next week; Fed Meeting and 'probably' a rebound in new-era tickers even if S&P goes more lateral for a bit. Also thinking of 'Ondas news' coming.
Disclosure:
This is an excerpt from Gene's Daily Briefing (distributed nightly), which typically includes videos as well as more charts and analysis.
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