Market Briefing For Monday, April 6

Extraordinary pre-weekend action in a number of stocks; overall market and in-line with my pre-opening comment on 'X', the S&P's decline following the President's speech was an overreaction; even as Oil exploded higher too.

It's been a short volatile trading week and we got our down-up flip; at least for the tickers we primarily watch. Not everything is working great, but most of it is doing fine. Here's another bit of a 'possible' heads-up: a) there are reports the President will reveal a new Defense Bill (allocation) tomorrow; but I don't know; and b) there is suggested to be a proposal in New York City to contract with a counter-drone system (we do know that NYC apparently tested or demonstrated Raider / Optimus to the NYPD and/or the NYFD last year); but we do not know of other contenders. If Ondas gets that order it won't be huge in dollars, but could set a precedent for other municipalities.

I'm totally speculating as to 'what' (beyond the technicals and/or deals) may be on-tap; but regardless we anticipated the shares to bounce back from all dips.

There's no way in hell that the Saudi or Dubai crowds will pick Iran over their U.S. relationships, which include various business, not solely movement of Oil & Gas. It's often nerve-wracking and conviction required as you never know the future for sure; but like support for our troops in a fight (regardless of how you view the path to conflict which historians can dissect), you need conviction and will see how it works out. In the case of our drone tickers ... very well so far.

Market X-ray: incredible Thursday ... stock market never deserved the heavy reaction to Trump's speech. Probably 'the' market wanted to 'cut and run' and a unilateral ceasefire; which would (in the minds of most strategists) be policy error that would shorten the conflict, but put everyone in the region 'at risk' So you got a 'finish the mission' approach; which is trickier, but may be essential.

Of course he was tired; scripted mostly and seemed a bit conflicted; but this is 'not' news; and actually the lack of a cohesive strategy (or so-called 'exit plan') might serve to his benefit; even be part of the plan if you ponder it. If he's not clear about it; that keeps Tehran off balance and unsure what may come next. And that's how it should be.

And by the way; people are feeling bad about the economy day-to-day; and of course a lot of that is Oil-price related. We can't redact the war; we so far are not deescalating as the rants about Trump's speech attest too ... and I suspect this gets dialed-back (somehow) in the weeks ahead. POTUS 'is' conscious of the time-limits before things thrust deeper, so you just have to weight / debate who 'gives' first; the U.S. or (what remains of the mullahs) Iran. The U.S. is at the helm of Oil production (especially when including Venezuela..ahem)... so I would contend we have more staying power in this than generally recognized; in fact perhaps some states ought to suspend gasoline taxes until the conflict ends (hello California).. and give the President a bit of time to wrap this up so that a real popular revolution gets going in Iran; or make a deal. Status quo is not likely to persist for very long.

It's all fluid.. during Thursday 'after the moderate turn back up'; we got stories about Oman and Iran negotiating for a 'gatekeeper' arrangement on Hormuz (which is International waters) and that thrust stocks higher.. ambiguity though as 'after' the Close you hear of the Iranian Navy (they have some remaining?) attack data centers such as Oracle's in another (presumably in Doha). I don't know; and if so you might see more U.S. action against Iran this weekend. I'm pretty sure they're still around; due to learning USAF A-10 'Warthogs' did do very long strafing runs around Iran's Persian Gulf coastline. The A-10 is really great for close-in air-support (sometimes the US Army likes it better than the Air Force does). As a result some USAF brass tried to shelve the A-10 for years; but the pilots, and U.S. Army pushed DoD to keep it; and it seems the current DoW finally appreciates the ground-support role); flies slow and with aerial supremacy it can operate unhindered for the most part. Well, the fabled strafing runs were 'bursts' of its 30 mm canon lasting up to 9 seconds. Typically (according to sources who would know this) 2-3 sec. is a burst. The ordnance load is good for around 18 seconds in-entirety; thus a 9 second gun burst suggests a bunch of Iranian speedboats found clustered in a port or pattern; prompting the longer expenditures of ordnance. So I'm just saying this fight isn't over; regardless if our leaders want to proclaim victory. I think that is why Iran's regime so far sacrifices its interim Oil revenue, since it has little else left to fight with, other than restricting the Oil flows to a trickle. In the long run we find a stronger U.S. / Western Oil & Gas supply; less reliance on the Middle East, and (already developing) strong LNG sales to the EU. (Of course Russia benefits greatly from high oil prices; so they have piped-down.)