Lumber Prices

Fell 34.3% (not annualized, in log terms) in July.

And fell faster than I anticipated in my post a week and a half ago.

Figure 1: PPI for lumber and softwood (blue, left scale), and forecast as of August 5 (see post) (dark brown,). NBER recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

The lumber PPI is now below the level recorded in January 2021.