Lucid reports Q3 on Monday, November 9, after the close. The quarter is unusually easy to rebuild, because Lucid already published its volume: on October 5 it said it delivered 3,806 vehicles and built 2,954. Deliveries fell 3.7% from Q2, in a quarter management had said would show a typical seasonal increase. The stock closed at $3.37 on November 4, up 11.6% on the day.
Lucid doesn't guide revenue, so the consensus is the only bar. At $399.1M from eight analysts, in a range of $321.7M to $441.5M, it needs more vehicles than Lucid delivered, a price per vehicle it has never reported, or an unusually large sale of regulatory credits.
Excluding credits, revenue per delivery was $79.7K a year ago, $91.4K in Q4, $91.3K in Q1 and $96.1K in Q2. With $15M of credits, the consensus needs $100.9K, another 5% rise, in a quarter when Lucid delivered 852 more vehicles than it built by clearing finished Gravity SUVs.
The forecast here is $95.0K per delivery and $376.6M of revenue, a miss. Even at the Q2 price, revenue would be $380.8M, still 4.6% short. For Q4, the forecast is $423.5M on 4,300 deliveries, against a consensus of $487.5M.
Since June a new chief executive, Silvio Napoli, has cut AMP-1 to one shift, stopped giving detailed guidance and launched a $1.4B cash plan built around selling down finished vehicles. So the call matters more for what it says about inventory and cash than for one revenue line.
The full model, with charts, is in the Q3 preview on Equibles.
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