Longer-duration Treasury Yields Continue To Push Lower

Longer-duration Treasury yields continue to push lower. Is this good or bad for stocks? I think it helps Technology stocks, so from that point-of-view it is good. But it is hard to make a case for accelerating global synchronized growth while longer-term rates are declining.

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Sentiment

The Investor's Intelligence Newsletter Sentiment Survey is showing about 53% bulls (up from 47% bulls last week) as reported by VIX-Squared on Twitter.

53% is under the 55% threshold where sentiment starts to work against stock prices, so I am interpreting this as a neutral reading. It isn't a green light to buy stocks, but it also doesn't indicate frothy bullishness which would indicate that it is time to raise cash.

I highly recommend paying attention to the Investor's Intelligence weekly survey. It has served me well for a long time. It isn't perfect. It doesn't always work, such as during extremely strong or weak market trends. However, most of the time, it provides very helpful market timing signals.

In general, when the number of bulls is below 45%, there is probably too much pessimism towards stocks which favors a period of higher stock prices. When the percent of bulls rises above 55%, it is in an indication that bullishness is starting to become excessive which works against stock prices.

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