Live-Cattle Analysis As Of July 11

Latest Price – $105.45

Weekly Chart

Pattern – a downtrend is clearly in process while the action since 2017 looks corrective in nature. I believe this corrective phase still has a little more time left before the downtrend resumes.

Bollinger Bands – price has been finding resistance from the middle band but I favour price to overcome it shortly and head up to the upper band where the next lower high can form.

Fibonacci – price is trading down between the 61.8% and 76.4% angles which are providing support and resistance respectively. Should price rally now then the 76.4% angle is a good spot to look for the next expected lower high.

Moving averages – in a bearish position.

RSI – weak and while I suspect a small rally may unfold shortly, it is certainly no sure bet and bulls should be cautious.

Quarterly Chart

Pattern – we can see a solid uptrend took place over 50 years before price rocketed up into a high in 2014. Price has declined steeply from that high and I expect this decline still has plenty of time and price to go. This decline, however, may not occur as quickly as the lines I have drawn suggest. Or perhaps it will. The market will decide that.

Bollinger Bands – price has found solid resistance from the middle band and, while another crack at that band is certainly on the cards, I believe price will get back down to the lower band before the next bull market commences.

Fibonacci – price is at the 50% angle which may provide some support. If so, the rally back to the 38.2% angle should be the play and it is there that the next lower high may form. Ultimately, I am targeting the 61.8% or 76.4% angle to see in the final low. Personally I favour the latter and that would see price get down to around the 76.4% retracement level of $66.37. Certainly, I expect price to get down to, and at a minimum clip, the 61.8% retracement level of $86.55.

RSI – weak.

Summing up – I believe the downtrend is set to continue in the foreseeable future with any rallies over the short term to be bear market rallies only.