The Gold Rally Is Finally Here

Latest Price – $1195.10

Daily Chart

Pattern – price looks to have capitulated into a low at $1162 and I am now looking for price to trade down and set up a higher low.

Bollinger Bands – price fell just short of the upper band and is now back at the middle band which has been providing support. I expect this support to give way with price pushing into the lower band to set up the higher low.

Fibonacci – I am targeting the higher low to be around support from the 88.6% angle and the 76.4% retracement level at $1175.

RSI – weak and should get down to around oversold territory before price turns back up.

Weekly Chart

Pattern – I believe a 5 point broadening top is in play with points 1 to 4 now in place.

Fibonacci – I have been looking for each of the angles to provide support and bring in the low and it was the last area of real support in the 88.6% angle that looks to have seen in the low. Unbelievable. Actually, what is unbelievable is that I didn’t see this until the last moment. I often see these set ups a mile off. But there it is. Better late than never. The low was also nicely in between the 76.4% and 88.6% retracement levels which is always a good spot for a low to form.

Moving averages – in a bullish position and bulls would not be wrong to get a little excited about things are looking here.

RSI – has moved up out of oversold territory and is now threatening to get back in there. While it may during this coming week, I expect that by the time the week is over it will have turned back up. That implies I am looking for a drop into low before price reverses back up sharply by the end of the week.

Monthly Chart

Pattern – I believe price is tracing out a big ABC correction with price still on its way to a wave B high. After that, I expect price to collapse to new lows.

Bollinger Bands – price is back at the lower band and I expect support to kick in big time here.

Fibonacci – price is at support from the 50% angle while I am ultimately targeting the wave B high to come in around resistance from the 76.4% angle and the 61.8% retracement level at $1586. Price may give each of these resistance areas a test before turning back down. That is, of course, if I have the overall outlook correct.

RSI – oversold.

Quarterly Chart

Pattern – while a massive bull trend is in progress, I believe a big correction is at hand with the coming expected rally to be a bear rally only.

Bollinger Bands – price is trading around the middle band and I expect big support to come in here and send price flying higher.

Fibonacci – I have drawn a fan from the 1976 low to all time high which shows some nice price symmetry with the 2001 low at retroactive support from the 88.6% angle while price has recently been consolidating between the 38.2% and 50% angles. Price is currently at support from the 50% angle and I expect a sharp rally that sees price get back up to the 38.2% angle a likely give that resistance angle a good test. After that, I expect price to collapse as we head into the next decade. Ultimately, I am targeting the wave C low, a higher low, to come in around support from the 76.4% angle while giving support from the 61.8% retracement level at $796 a good test. All in good time.

Horizontal line – denotes the level where price began to crash in 2013. Price often corrects back to the “scene of the crime” and I expect that to occur here. This level stands at $1602.

RSI – weak and should this outlook be wrong then this indicator will head down to oversold territory. That is not my expectation. Instead, I believe this indicator has just been passing time over the past two years and is now set to skyrocket up to around overbought territory.

Summing up 

I expect a higher low to form in the coming days after which it will be all systems go for an explosive bear rally.