Key Events In EMEA Next Week - Saturday, June 12

By Dawid Pachucky, Muhammet Mercan of ING Economics

Economic and Financial Analysis • Jun 12, 2021 at 4:18 PM EDT

No changes expected from Turkey's central bank meanwhile inflation, current account and employment data from Poland are key releases to watch

Turkey: Little change expected

According to Turkey's central bank its forecast path in the inflation report show end of the third quarter or the beginning of the last quarter for “the significant fall” in the headline inflation. Given that currently low ex-post real rates and ongoing risks to outlook leave little room to act, we do not expect any rate change from the CBT in the June meeting.

However, improvement in inflation should allow the bank to come up with a moderate easing with a likely first move in October

Poland: Continued inflation pressure, higher CA surplus, and employment boost all incoming

On Monday the Polish central bank will publish the April balance on the current account. We expect an increase of the surplus to €1.3bn, from €0.9bn in March (consensus at €1.2bn). On Tuesday the final print should confirm May CPI at 4.8% (as in the flash estimate), indicating continued strong pressure from the core and the low base for fuel prices.

On Friday, we'll get labour market data and we think we'll get higher employment in May as restrictions were eased, transferring to acceleration of the YoY growth to 2.5% from 0.9% the previous month (market consensus at 2.4%). The wage growth should be at 10% YoY compared to 9.9% in April and the consensus at 10.2%.

EMEA Economic Calendar

Source: ING, Refinitiv

Disclaimer:

This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.

Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch. ING Bank N.V., London Branch is deemed authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website.. ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.

Comments

Back to all articles