More of the same story as data across the EMEA region reflect the economic cost of Covid-19. Core inflation is expected to fall as a result of falling fuel prices.
In Poland, the Central Statistical office (GUS) will provide the first CPI reading after the country lockdown. We expect a solid slide from 4.7% to 4.1% YoY on fuel prices and core inflation. Major retailers announced stronger than usual discounts for clothing and recreation equipment. Secondly, this reading will be dominated by problems with price collection – a lot of services e.g. gyms, hairdressers did not work at all.
Czech Republic: We see March inflation slowing down in Europe amid a fall in oil prices. The same happened in the Czech economy, with fuel prices falling by 5% MoM in March. Though there is a huge uncertainty related to food prices dynamics, which likely accelerated, or package holidays or other services amid Covid-19 measures, we expect CPI to slow-down slightly from 3.7% to 3.5%.
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