In this week’s video, we examine whether the market is beginning to question the massive spending associated with the AI buildout—and, more importantly, what the price evidence is actually saying.
We revisit the 2000–2002 technology bust, when lofty earnings expectations collided with a very different reality and the Nasdaq (QQQ) ultimately suffered a 78% peak-to-trough decline. Using that period as a historical reference point, we compare the technical deterioration that developed around the 2000 peak with today’s market structure.
We also examine a remarkable long-term relationship between technology stocks and long-term Treasuries, including a consolidation that lasted more than two decades before a major breakout around the emergence of generative AI. From there, we review technology relative to the S&P 500 (SPY), defensive sectors relative to technology, financial stocks, low-volatility shares, intermediate-term Treasuries, the 10-Year Treasury yield, and the S&P 500’s longer-term secular structure.
As Paul Tudor Jones said, “I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.” With questions increasing about AI spending, valuations, interest rates, and the durability of the technology boom, this week’s video asks whether the market itself is beginning to confirm those concerns—or whether the weight of the evidence is sending a different message.
Topics include: AI capital spending, technology earnings, the dot-com bust, Nasdaq history, market leadership, relative strength, Ichimoku Cloud analysis, defensive assets, financial stocks, Treasury yields, secular bull markets, and risk management.
Video Length: 00:27:39
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