IREN reports Q1 FY27 results on November 5, 2026. Its fiscal year ends June 30, so the report covers July to September 2026, the first quarter in which Microsoft's Horizon 1 cluster earned revenue. The stock fell 39.1% from its September 30 close to October 23, in a sell-off that hit every company borrowing to build GPU clouds.
Our call: Q1 revenue should beat consensus. The bigger question is no longer revenue, it is how IREN pays for a $25 to $30 billion capital plan.
The run-rate math
On the August 27 call, CFO Anthony Lewis said IREN "exited Q4 at roughly half a billion of ARR", that ARR was "$1 billion today following acceptance of Horizon 1 by Microsoft", and that it "will carry through to the end of the September quarter". IREN announced on August 13 that Microsoft (MSFT) had accepted Horizon 1, which carries about $485M of ARR.
Q1 FY27 component | $M |
|---|---|
Existing capacity, about $0.5B of ARR for 92 days | 126.0 |
Horizon 1, $485M of ARR for 49 days | 65.1 |
AI Cloud total (June quarter: 70.5) | 191.1 |
Bitcoin mining (estimated from network hashprice) | 48.8 |
Total revenue forecast | 239.9 |
Consensus (13 analysts, as of October 17) | 221.3 |
The forecast is 8.4% above consensus and near the top of the $200.0M to $244.6M analyst range. Consensus leaves about $172M for AI Cloud if mining comes in near our estimate, which implies either a later start for Horizon 1 or existing GPUs earning well below their run-rate. Neither is what management described.
The December quarter is closer to consensus: $403.9M against $392.0M. The CFO said "a significant amount of the December capacity is expected to come on late in the quarter". If Horizon 2 starts on December 15 and the other new capacity on December 20, Q2 falls to $381.0M.
Funding is the overhang
The CFO put FY27 capital expenditure at $25 to $30 billion, against about $14 billion secured (cash, committed financing and prepayments) plus an estimated $8 billion of further GPU financing. That leaves $3 billion to $8 billion to find.
Shares outstanding rose from about 283.5M in October 2025 to 394.1M on August 14, 2026, up 39.0%.
IREN had sold $2.5 billion of its $6.0 billion at-the-market program by August 14. The remaining $3.5 billion would be about 141M new shares at the October 23 close of $24.91.
Positioning
Short interest was 81.7M shares on September 30, about 20.7% of shares outstanding.
IREN's last five results came after the US close, and the next-day moves averaged 9.4% either way.
What to watch on the call
Whether Horizon 1 revenue started on August 13 as the run-rate implies.
The dates for Horizons 2 to 4, which decide the December quarter.
Any update on the share count and on data center financing that would reduce the need for new equity.
The full preview, with the segment model, the margin bridge, the assumptions table and every source filing, is on Equibles.
Data: IREN SEC filings and earnings call transcripts, processed by Equibles.
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