Investors’ Focus Today Is On The RBNZ, BoC, And FOMC Meetings

On Tuesday, the U3S stock indices closed higher. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.03%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) advanced 0.60%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday with a solid gain of 1.29%. The main catalyst for the rally remains sustained institutional interest in AI infrastructure: a $63 billion syndicated loan for Anthropic lifted Broadcom shares by 4%, while Oracle’s expanded partnership with OpenAI pushed the latter’s shares up by 3.6%. Even in Meta shares, which declined by 1.6%, the 5-times oversubscription of its $25 billion share offering signals a deep pool of liquidity among investors willing to finance massive data center capex. As markets are pricing in nearly a 100% probability of rates remaining unchanged at today’s meeting, the primary focus now shifts to Big Tech’s ability to demonstrate returns on capital expenditures in their quarterly earnings reports.

Today, the FOMC meeting will take place. The transition toward a “quiet Fed” approach under Kevin Warsh, at a time when core CPI stands at 3.7% and US 10-year Treasury yields hover around 5.0%, suggests that policymakers are preserving maximum flexibility. The base-case scenario for today is a neutral or hawkish pause. Maintaining the federal funds rate within the 3.75%-4.00% range while simultaneously leaving the door open for further monetary tightening in December will likely support the US dollar, keeping EUR/USD under pressure near the 1.12 level. For gold, which recently fell below $4,000 amid a liquidity-driven sell-off, elevated real interest rates will limit the potential for a rapid recovery. Meanwhile, technology stocks may come under pressure due to persistently high borrowing costs.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 0.71%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.51% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.67%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down 0.75%.

The renewed rise in oil prices (WTI) above $101 per barrel following a two-day correction clearly demonstrates how fragile the recent optimism regarding diplomatic de-escalation remains. Reports that the United States has urged Gulf countries to prepare for a potential new military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections immediately restored a geopolitical risk premium to the market. The fundamental picture further reinforces this bullish momentum: a decline in US commercial crude inventories by approximately 2 million barrels during the week ending October 23, coupled with a drop in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to a record low of 282.6 million barrels, points to a persistent physical supply deficit.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.73%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed 1.14% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell 0.73%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) finished Tuesday up 0.46%.

The Australian dollar’s (AUD) breakout above the $0.70 level to five-week highs is a vivid illustration of how strong economic data can instantly reshape monetary policy expectations. Australia’s September inflation report proved to be a powerful catalyst: annual CPI accelerated to 4.3%, the highest level since March, while monthly inflation rose by 0.8%, exceeding all consensus expectations and clearly demonstrating that price pressures in the economy remain not only persistent but are also reaccelerating due to higher energy and logistics costs. Combined with Michele Bullock’s warnings regarding the materialization of inflation risks, the market’s repricing from a 60% to an 88% probability of a fifth rate hike at the November 3 meeting appears fundamentally inevitable. As a result, the Reserve Bank of Australia is firmly establishing itself as the most hawkish central bank among the G10 economies.

The unexpected pause by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which kept the official cash rate unchanged at 2.75% despite market expectations for a 25-basis-point increase, clearly demonstrated the growing dilemma facing developed-market central banks. The decision was passed by the committee with the narrowest possible margin, four votes to three, highlighting profound uncertainty. Policymakers are being forced to navigate between a slowdown in inflation to 3.7% in the third quarter and the risk of a renewed acceleration to 4.4% in the fourth quarter due to secondary oil-market shocks. The decline of NZD/USD toward two-week lows in the $0.5585-0.561 range was a straightforward reaction to the rapid evaporation of the yield premium that institutional investors had priced in ahead of the meeting.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,722.60 +45.83 (+0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,377.57 +15.99 (+0.03%)

DAX (DE40) 25,590.77 +179.93 (+0.71%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,686.54 -80.79 (-0.75%)

USD Index 102.38 +0.42 (+0.41%)

News feed for: 2026.10.28

• Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2) – AUD (HIGH)

• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2) – NZD (HIGH)

• New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2) – NZD (HIGH)

• New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2) – NZD (MED)

• German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (LOW)

• UK Annual Budget Release at 14:30 (GMT+2) – GBP (MED)

• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 15:45 (GMT+2) – CAD (HIGH)

• Canada BoC Monetary Policy Statement at 15:45 (GMT+2) – CAD (HIGH)

• Canada BOC Press Conference at 16:30 (GMT+2) – CAD (MED)

• US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2) – WTI (HIGH)

• US Federal Funds Rate at 20:00 (GMT+2) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)

• US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)

• US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)