Intuitive Machines Q3 Preview: A Third Of The Backlog Is One Authorization

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) reports Q3 2026 results on Thursday, November 12, before the open, with the call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The stock closed at $9.86 on November 2, down 39% from the end of 2025 and 33% lower over the third quarter alone.

Since buying Lanteris, the former Maxar satellite factory, on January 13, the company has gone from $52.4M of quarterly revenue to $206.2M in Q2. Management guides $900M to $1B for 2026. With $392.9M booked in the first half, the second half needs at least $507.1M.

Our call: Q3 revenue of $226.0M, below the $247.6M consensus (10 analysts, October 20 snapshot) and below its lowest estimate of $235.0M. Full year $888.9M, just under the guide.

Q2 was flat once Lanteris is counted for a full quarter

Consensus needs 20.1% growth from Q2. Q2 grew 10.4% over Q1, but Q1 held only 78 days of Lanteris. Scaled to the full 90-day quarter, Q1 product revenue becomes about $163.4M; Q2 came in at $166.7M. New geostationary and Golden Dome work starts in Q3, while the 16 Tranche 1 satellites delivered in Q2 and SiriusXM-11 roll off.

What the backlog is made of

Backlog was $1.76B at June 30. Firm fixed-price orders, the 10-Q's remaining performance obligations, were $814.7M, with "approximately 30-35%" due "over the remaining 6 months": $244M to $285M for Q3 and Q4 together. The other $947.3M is $587.0M for one three-satellite geostationary program, carried at its expected value of "more than $600.0 million" on a $45.0M authority to proceed; $316.0M of funded cost-type work; and $44.3M of constrained mission payments.

Management expects 25% to 30% of backlog to become revenue in the rest of 2026. At 25%, the year ends at $833.4M; at 30%, $921.5M. The guide's low end needs 28.8%, and the $528.1M second half in consensus needs the full 30%. The CFO said the swing factor is "the timing of contract definitization", so the quarter depends on paperwork as much as production.

Margins and cash

Gross profit before depreciation was 17.4% of revenue in Q2, after a $14.7M increase in the estimated cost to complete the IM-4 lunar mission. Adjusted EBITDA was -$13.8M in Q2 and -$11.1M for the half, so the full-year positive EBITDA guide needs more than $11.1M in H2. We forecast $2.2M in Q3.

Cash was $367.4M at June 30. The company spent about $84M on operations and capital projects in Q2 and has about $209M left on a $500M at-the-market program, which raised $291M at an average of $26.81 a share. At $9.86, each $100M now costs about 10.1M shares.

Positioning

• Short interest was 38.0M shares on October 15, 22.0% of the 173.2M Class A shares, with 4.4 days to cover.

• Co-founder Kamal Ghaffarian sold $31.1M of stock under a 10b5-1 plan between May and September; no insider has bought since November 2025.

• The November 13 straddle at the $10 strike prices a move of about 17%.

What to watch

• Whether the geostationary program is now a definitive contract.

• The full-year guide: kept, narrowed or cut.

• The Q3 10-Q's fixed-price order figure and schedule, against $814.7M in June.

The full Intuitive Machines preview has the scenarios, the cash bridge, management's quotes and the charts.

Data: Intuitive Machines SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, FINRA short interest and analyst consensus, processed by Equibles.