Initial Jobless Claims: A Little Soft, But Continued Expansion Signaled

I’ll put up an analysis of this morning’s CPI later. In the meantime, initial jobless claims rose 21,000 last week to 248,000. The more important 4-week moving average rose 2,750 to 231,000. With a one-week delay, continuing claims declined by -8,000 to 1.684 million:

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On an absolute level, all of this remains very good.

The YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. There, for the week initial claims are up 15.9% YoY. However, the 4-week moving average is only up 7.9% - far too low an increase to be consistent with any imminent recession. Continuing claims remain very elevated YoY, up 24.6%:

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Remember, because YoY claims did not cross the 12.5% threshold for 2 full months, we reset the clock. While claims suggest a slight increase in the unemployment rate on the order of 0.2%-0.3% in the next few months, that is not nearly enough to trigger the Sahm Rule.

In short, a little softness, but no recession signaled.

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July Jobs Report: Almost Across The Board Deterioration In Leading Sectors