Inflation In August

Readings exceeds expectations, m/m 0.6% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs -0.1% core).

Figure 1: CPI headline year-on-year (tan), quarter-on-quarter (green), month-on-month (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Figure 2: CPI core year-on-year (tan), quarter-on-quarter (green), month-on-month (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Note that narrower indices — core and 16% trimmed — are month-on-month up from last month, albeit down from recent peaks.

Figure 3: CPI headline month-on-month (blue), core (tan), 16% trimmed (green). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

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