Growth Deceleration Relative To “Liberation Day”

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser.com
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Growth in the U.S. has slowed since April’s “Liberation Day” tariff shock, with key weekly economic indexes down 0.7‒1.1 percentage points from trend — signaling early warning signs for the broader economy.

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Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is down 1.1 ppts, while Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator (for deviation from trend growth) is down 0.7 ppts.

 

Figure 1: Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator for US (tan), all y/y growth rate in %. Source: NY Fed via FRED, WECI, accessed 10/31, and author’s calculations.

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