Based on his public comments towards now-former Fed Chair Jerome Powell, no one will be happier to see new leadership at the Federal Reserve than President Trump.
The chart below shows the S&P 500's performance during Powell's tenure, which has been much better than the President's rhetoric towards the former Fed chair would suggest. During this period, the S&P 500 has more than doubled from under 3,000 to over 7,000. While the point-to-point gains have been strong, it's been a pretty volatile ride.
The lower chart shows the S&P 500's drawdowns from all-time highs throughout Powell's tenure. During that time, the S&P 500 experienced two bear markets and two near-bear markets in which the S&P 500 declined close to 20%. In most cases, though, the declines were short-lived, and outside the 2022 bear market, after each prior bear or near-bear, the S&P 500 was back at new highs within weeks or months.
Through Friday morning, right up to the swearing-in ceremony, the S&P 500's annualized gain during Powell's tenure was 13.4%. Relative to Powell's peers, the only Fed Chair since WWII who presided over a stronger stock market was Paul Volcker. Powell's performance is tied with William Miller, who preceded Volcker, but he was chairman for less than two years, or less than a quarter of the time Powell had the same role.
President Trump is almost certainly thinking good riddance today, but from a strictly stock market perspective, it doesn't get much better, or as the President or new Fed Chair would probably say, "at least not yet."
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