Nvidia Gets Its Leather Jacket Back

It’s about time! After more than four months, Nvidia (NVDA) has finally gotten its act together, and the AI bull market's leading star traded at an all-time high today. If the gains hold through the end of the day, it will mark the stock's first record close since May 14th. Over that same period, the S&P 500 is up about 3% while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is up about 10%, so for a company that has led the AI movement, NVDA’s stock has been a laggard.

At 96 trading days, the current streak without a new high for NVDA ranks as the third-longest since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 (not including the streak of over 300 trading days that started well before the launch of ChatGPT but didn’t end until after). Of the two longer streaks, one lasted 120 trading days (about six months) and ended in April 2026, while the other lasted 115 trading days and ended in June 2025.

So, when those prior streaks ended, did it represent a breakout from which NVDA never looked back, or did the rally pause to catch its breath? The chart below shows NVDA’s performance over the last two years, and each red dot represents when the two streaks mentioned above ended. When the 115-day streak ended in June 2025, NVDA kept running from there and ultimately rallied an additional 34% over the next five months. When the more recent streak ended in April 2026, though, the rally didn’t have much longer to go as the stock peaked three weeks later, rallying an additional 12% before quickly pulling back.

We’ve noted numerous times since the summer how NVDA and the SOX often traded in separate directions. When one zigged, the other would seem to zag and vice versa. If you take a step back, though, a chart of the two so far this year shows that while they haven’t moved in unison, there is some evidence of NVDA leading and the SOX following.

As shown in the chart below, as semis ran in the spring and sold off in the summer, NVDA led the charge on both the way up and the way down. The stock traded sideways after that sell-off for a little over a month before regaining momentum in late July/early August. Semis, meanwhile, didn’t bottom out until early August and traded sideways through the middle of September before starting to pick up steam again in the back half of the month. If NVDA is once again leading the way, its new high could be an early signal for the rest of the group. Will new highs follow in the weeks ahead? By Halloween, we should know if the recent move was a trick or a treat.