Gold Rebounds Above $4,100 As Buyers Return

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory around $4,125 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its recovery as ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to underpin safe-haven demand.

Traders are scrambling back into the yellow metal after attacks between the United States (US) and Iran are widening into a second week. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed that the US will blow up an Iranian bridge or power plant, including those in the country’s capital city of Tehran every time Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran threatened to strike US-linked infrastructure and energy facilities across the region if Washington carries out Trump’s threat. Earlier Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of not being “serious” about making an agreement with the US while emphasizing that Washington was “committed to diplomacy” in the Middle East.

“The recent rebound feels mostly flow-driven, sparked by a bit of dip-buying and sheer relief that the US$4,000-an-ounce floor held,” says Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. “However, I don’t expect this to be the start of a new structural trend. Energy prices are just starting to pick up again, and that concern will ultimately cap the upside,” McKay added. 

Fed funds futures traders were pricing in a nearly 34% probability of a rate hike from the Fed this month, up from 10% a week ago. Traders were also pricing in a 78% odds of at least a 25 basis points (bps) rate increase in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.