Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Toys With $5,000 Level On Tuesday

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The daily chart for spot Gold shows a broad uptrend that is holding above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 4,637 and the 200-day EMA at 3,954, confirming the longer-term bullish structure. After printing an all-time high near 5,598 on January 29, price pulled back sharply and has since been consolidating in a range roughly between 4,800 and 5,100. Tuesday's session opened at 5,080 before selling off to a low of 4,987, with price currently trading around 5,013, down 1.31% on the day. The 5,000 psychological level is acting as near-term support, while the swing highs around 5,080 to 5,100 form immediate resistance. The pullback from the all-time high represents approximately a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader rally from the December 2025 lows, suggesting the correction is still within healthy territory for a trend continuation.

On the lower timeframes, the Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) has rolled over from overbought territory, with %K at 46.58 and %D at 41.94, pointing to fading short-term momentum and suggesting further downside pressure before a potential base forms. Price action on Tuesday displayed a bearish daily candle with a relatively narrow body, signaling indecision near the 5,000 handle. Today's US economic data added a bearish catalyst for the US Dollar, as December Retail Sales came in flat at 0.0% versus 0.4% expected, and the Employment Cost Index for Q4 printed at 0.7% versus 0.8% consensus. Weaker consumer spending data reinforces expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later this year, which is structurally supportive for Gold. A sustained hold above 5,000 opens the door for a recovery toward the 5,100 to 5,150 resistance zone, while a daily close below 5,000 would expose the next support area near 4,935 to 4,880, where buyers stepped in during the early February correction.