Gold Forecast: High Interest Rates Continue To Cap Rallies

Gold continues to move on the latest moves in yields globally.

Gold

The gold market has been somewhat choppy during Tuesday's trading session, as we are at a major point of confluence with an uptrend line that goes back to at least New Year's Day and a demand zone between $4,000 and $4,200.

I think it makes a certain amount of sense that the market is looking for a bit of a bounce here. The question is, of course, will we have a reason to bounce? That reason needs to be in the form of interest-rate drops, especially in the United States, but we'll have to wait and see whether or not that happens.

Ultimately, we're stuck with those headlines coming out of the Middle East driving energy inflation concerns

If we fall from here, there does seem to be a lot of demand all the way down to $4,000, so I don't think it's the end of the world. However, it would invalidate a trend line, and that might be something worth paying attention to.

For what it's worth, the 50-day EMA is now rolling over and trying to break down below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called death cross. But I don't read much into it because they are both basically flat, so I don't worry too much. Still, I'm watching this market very closely.

If we do rally from here, the 200-day EMA at the $4,331 level could end up being a bit of a barrier. Breaking above there then opens up the possibility of a bigger move, but I suspect at this point in time we would have to see rates really dropping in order to make that happen.

That drives the bond market. That has not changed. Longer term, though, I am bullish on gold and do think that eventually the buyers will reclaim the momentum. They just don't have it right now.