Weekly Forex Forecast: Major Markets Enter October With Rates And Key Levels In Focus

Gold

The gold market has fallen during the trading week as we continue to see a lot of interest rate pressure coming out of the United States. With interest rates continuing to climb, it is difficult for gold to simply take off.

We are sitting at a major uptrend line and sitting on top of a major demand zone. So the question now is whether we will see buyers come back into the picture. A lot of this will come down to what happens with interest rates, but we are at a major confluence, and I'll be watching for falling rates to give us an opportunity to start thinking about going long gold.

GBP/USD

The jobs number in the United States was a huge miss, and that not only influences the gold market previously mentioned, but it also has a major influence on the British pound. We are sitting at the bottom of a range now that we have been in since the month of February.

The 1.3150 level and the 200-week EMA both come into the picture for support, while the massive resistance is closer to the 1.37 level. We're at the bottom of the range, and we formed a neutral candlestick. We'll see if, with a little bit of help from falling rates, we could see this thing turn around.

EUR/USD

The euro has fallen for the week, testing the 200-week EMA, although this is a little bit different a situation than the British pound, as we have French debt becoming a serious concern.

That doesn't necessarily mean that we can't turn around; it just means that the market does have a little bit more pressure than the British pound does. So, you might be looking at a situation where you might just prefer to short EUR/GBP instead of trading this pair. A short-term bounce, though, more likely than not, could run into a bit of trouble near the 1.14 level.

Copper

The copper market has fallen during the bulk of the week but continues to see support at the $6.50 level. This is an area that remains important, and I just don't see that changing.

It's worth noting that the supply-and-demand picture still favors rising prices for copper with all of the electrification of the economy, not to mention the AI data centers. So, those come into the picture as well. Regardless, I do like the idea of buying copper on dips. That remains the story that I am following.

Silver

Silver has seen quite a bit of ugliness during the week, but it is starting to find some support near the $60 level, which is an area that had previously offered support.

We'll have to wait and see how this plays out, but the initial reaction to the jobs number being so weak in the United States could be somewhat bullish for silver as interest rates have fallen. Whether or not that sticks through the weekend remains to be seen, especially considering that headlines out of the Middle East could send oil flying.

Crude Oil (WTI)

Speaking of oil, we are testing an uptrend line now, and this is a market that is sitting in an area where there should be a certain amount of interest. This, of course, is driven by the latest headlines coming out of the Middle East, and unfortunately, that's not the easiest thing to deal with.

The headlines coming out of the Middle East continue to be very noisy, very obnoxious, and very unreliable. So, with that, I think you have a situation where it's going to be a very difficult place to live, but at the end of the day, it's also a market that still has plenty of things that could send it flying.

USD/MXN

The U.S. dollar rallied against the Mexican peso quite nicely during the week. It has pulled back from the 18.41 level, where the 200-week EMA sits, as rates in America drifted a little bit lower.

The interest rate differential still favors Mexico, but it is shrinking, and this is a pair I'm watching very closely. I'm interested in shorting this pair, but only if interest rates in the United States continue to drop. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but if we break above 18.50, then clearly, we've changed the overall trend. I'm not a buyer then, though, because I do not have any interest in dealing with paying swap.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 initially fell for the week but is breaking out to the upside again, as we continue to see buyers jumping in to take advantage of rates perhaps slipping a bit, the artificial intelligence trade, and, quite frankly, just the overall momentum of the markets to the upside.

Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities from everything I see. I've got no interest in shortening this market and do believe that we continue to see buyers enter this market from the longer-term standpoint.